Every year, Nigeria receives a crucial document that often flies under the radar, despite its significance. At the start of each year, the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet) publishes its Seasonal Climate Prediction (SCP), a detailed dataset that forecasts rainfall patterns, temperature trends, dry spells, flooding risks, and planting windows throughout the country.
To many, this report might seem overly technical and disconnected from daily life. However, hidden within those figures is vital information that can influence whether farmers plant too early or too late, whether cities are ready for potential flooding, and whether government agencies can anticipate droughts or food shortages. In a nation already facing the challenges of climate variability, climate data has transformed from a scientific luxury into a crucial tool for survival.
Nigeria is already experiencing the impacts of climate change. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has noted that Africa is one of the regions most susceptible to climate variability, largely due to its reliance on rain-fed agriculture.
In Nigeria, the effects are evident. Agriculture employs about 35–40 percent of the workforce and accounts for roughly 25 percent of the GDP. Yet, over 80 percent of farming still relies on rainfall. When those rainfall patterns change, the repercussions are felt throughout the economy.
The catastrophic floods of 2022 brought this reality into sharp focus. According to the National Emergency Management Agency, floods affected more than 30 states, displacing over 1.4 million people and destroying more than 440,000 hectares of farmland. This disaster contributed to rising food prices, which have continued to put pressure on household budgets.
These events underscore a vital truth: climate shocks are becoming more frequent, and effectively managing them hinges on having accurate, reliable, and timely data.
In a country like Nigeria, climate data serves three essential purposes. First off, it helps farmers get a handle on their planting schedules. Thanks to seasonal forecasts from the Nigerian Meteorological Agency, farmers can pinpoint when rainfall is likely to begin and end across various ecological zones. For instance, if there’s a prediction of delayed rainfall, farmers can avoid planting too early, which often leads to crop failures.
Next, climate statistics play a crucial role in disaster preparedness. With forecasts for floods, rainfall intensity, and temperature anomalies, government agencies can set up measures to mitigate potential disasters. When early warning systems are effectively utilized, communities can either relocate or safeguard their infrastructure before disaster strikes.
Additionally, this data is vital for national economic planning. Agriculture, water resources, power generation, and infrastructure all hinge on climate conditions. Having reliable climate information allows policymakers to allocate resources wisely, enhance irrigation systems, and safeguard food production. Without this data, planning turns into a guessing game.
Even with climate forecasts available, the biggest hurdle is turning scientific data into practical information that everyday citizens can use. Many rural farmers don’t even know that seasonal predictions exist. Others might get the information too late or in formats that are hard to grasp. Closing this gap between data creation and its practical use is a significant challenge.
That’s why organizations like the Nigerian Meteorological Agency are increasingly reaching out to farmers, state governments, and media outlets to simplify and share climate information. When farmers receive climate forecasts early and in easy-to-understand formats, it can significantly impact their choices regarding crop types, irrigation strategies, and harvesting times.
Beyond agriculture, climate statistics are becoming essential for urban planning and infrastructure development. Nigeria’s rapidly expanding cities are facing heightened risks from flooding, heat waves, and water shortages. Accurate climate projections can inform the design of drainage systems, dams, and flood defenses.
Having x-rayed the importance of the annual data released by NiMet, the pathetic question Nigeriansare seeking answers to is: How has this climate data and statistics informed policy and development at the state levels where climate catastrophes usually occur?
Seating at the launch of the 2026 edition of the climate prediction, where dignities both from within and outside Nigeria were given encomiums about the great work NiMet was doing and the painstaking efforts put into gathering and analyzing those data, the first thing that came to my mind was: where are the state governors?
I entered the NAF conference hall thinking that it would be full of state governors whose domains were highlighted in the prediction as vulnerable, but unfortunately, not even one was present or represented.
That is not the first time we have witnessed the absence of governors at such an event. After the 2012 flood that displaced millions of Nigerians in almost 30 states, one thought the state government would have learnt to prioritize the presentation of such valuable data sets that would assist them in mitigating any climate vulnerability, but events have shown that nothing was learnt from the 2012 experience.
My advice for NiMet is to stop launching the seasonal prediction in Abuja and take such a ceremony to the most vulnerable state as found by the prediction and organize a people-centred event that would force the state government to act, as the majority of the people have been privy to the impending calamities, they would protest if timely action and strategies were not deployed. The media should be fully represented so that they can beam their search light on the state in their watchdog role.
Enough of Abuja-based forecast releases that the content, the threatened and vulnerable people at the receiving end in the states are not aware of, yet bear the burden. With the availability of enhanced technologies that are ensuring accurate weather prediction, Nigeria should have grown beyond and above waiting for the flood and other climate calamities to occur, and resort to emergency interventions of giving victims mattresses and other handouts that would have been prevented if action was taking as soon as the predictions were released.
