By Abbas Nazil
Climate change could wipe out between 36 and 50 percent of the world’s land currently suitable for livestock grazing by the end of the century, placing global food security and millions of livelihoods at serious risk.
A new study by researchers from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research warns that grassland-based livestock systems, which cover about one third of the Earth’s surface, are highly vulnerable to rising temperatures and shifting weather patterns.
The research, published in the journal PNAS, mapped a “safe climatic space” for grazing animals such as cattle, sheep and goats based on temperature, rainfall, humidity and wind conditions that have historically supported productive grasslands.
Scientists found that as climate change intensifies, large portions of these suitable zones will shrink or disappear entirely, fundamentally threatening farming systems that have existed for centuries.
According to the researchers, grazing has thrived within specific climate ranges, but those conditions are rapidly shifting as global warming accelerates.
Lead author, Chaohui Li, said climate change will significantly contract the spaces where animals can graze, forcing farmers and pastoral communities to adapt, migrate or face the collapse of their livelihoods.
The study estimates that between 110 and 140 million pastoralists and up to 1.6 billion animals could be negatively affected by the loss of viable grazing land.
More than half of those impacted already live in countries struggling with poverty, hunger, political instability and gender inequality, making adaptation far more difficult.
Africa is expected to be the hardest hit region, as temperatures there are already near the upper limit of what grazing systems can tolerate.
Under a low-emissions scenario, African grasslands could shrink by 16 percent, but if fossil fuel use continues to rise, losses could reach as high as 65 percent by 2100.
Key grazing areas in regions such as the Ethiopian highlands, East African Rift Valley, Kalahari Basin and Congo Basin are projected to shift southward as temperatures increase.
Because the continent ends at the southern ocean, these climate zones could eventually move beyond Africa’s landmass, eliminating suitable grazing conditions altogether in some regions.
Researchers warned that traditional coping strategies, such as switching livestock species or migrating herds, may no longer be enough to offset the scale of climate disruption.
They stressed that rapid cuts in greenhouse gas emissions, especially through moving away from fossil fuels, are critical to limiting the damage to livestock systems.
The findings also highlight a growing opportunity for alternative protein industries as conventional livestock farming becomes more vulnerable to climate impacts.
Livestock production already contributes up to one fifth of global greenhouse gas emissions and uses about 80 percent of the world’s farmland.
As climate change continues to disrupt meat supplies and push prices higher, plant-based, fermentation-derived and cultivated protein products could play a major role in stabilising food systems.
Previous research has shown that plant-based diets dramatically reduce emissions, land use and water consumption compared to meat-heavy diets.
Experts say scaling alternative proteins could ease pressure on fragile grazing ecosystems while improving food security in regions most exposed to climate risks.
The study remarks that without urgent climate action, the shrinking of the planet’s grazing lands could trigger widespread economic hardship, food shortages and environmental degradation across some of the world’s most vulnerable communities.
