By Bisola Adeyemo
The UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report released on Monday says that climate change has reduce agricultural productivity growth by more than a third (34%) since 1961, especially in Africa, where the impact of climate change has reduced crops quality, especially wheat and maize due to the extreme weather.
This was contained in the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report, Working Group II report, Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability, released on Monday.
The report follows the Working Group I report released in August 2021, which provided scientific evidence of the physical changes to the climate. The most recent report sheds light on the irreversible consequences of global warming beyond 1.5°C for people and ecosystems in different world regions.
“Future warming will negatively affect food systems in Africa by shortening growing seasons and increasing water stress. Global warming above 2°C will result in yield reductions for staple crops across most of Africa compared to 2005 yields,” the report read.
Christopher Trisos, one of the report’s African authors and senior researcher at the African Climate and Development Initiative at the University of Cape Town, said in Sub-Saharan Africa, staple crops like maize and wheat have already seen reductions due to climate change.
He added that the increase in carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and changing rainfall in South Africa and southern Africa has resulted in the expansion of woody vegetation – such as trees and shrubs – into grasslands. Furthermore, savannahs have expanded, reducing grazing land or pastures. This has had a negative knock-on effect on eco-tourism, as it is difficult to see animals through thick vegetation, Trisos said.
There has also been an increase in the distribution of vector-borne diseases and parasites like ticks for livestock. Other negative impacts on livestock include decreasing fodder availability – as woody plants encroach on grazing lands. Reduced grazing land and water has also contributed to starvation, malnutrition and death.
Climate change also poses a further threat to African fisheries. Reduced fishing harvests due to global warming under 1.7°C can leave millions of Africans with vitamin deficiencies.
Daniel Olago, of the Institute for Climate Change Adaptation and Department of Geology at the University of Nairobi, said it is not all “doom and gloom” for the agriculture sector. There have been some opportunities – for example, the heavy rainfalls in major dry regions have recharged groundwater systems. There is an opportunity to “exploit” the groundwater as a buttress for agriculture.
Co-author Edmond Totin, and research scientist at the International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropic, added that climate change positively impacted other major products like sugar cane in southern Africa and palm oil in West Africa.
The report flagged droughts as a “major driver” of food insecurity and reduced crop yields. Climate change is causing droughts to become more frequent and severe. South Africa and California reported the worst droughts on record in the past decade, the report indicated.
The report notes that between 2015 and 2017, the Western Cape region experienced three consecutive years of below-average rainfall, which led to water shortages in Cape Town. Human-induced climate change made the drought “five to six times more likely”, the report read.
In 2018, the Western Cape’s water supply was reduced to 20% of capacity (compared to 97% in 2014). Agricultural yields declined by 25% in the following year.
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