By Abdullahi Lukman
Amphibians around the world are already feeling the heat from climate change, with 2 percent of species—equivalent to 104 out of 5,203 studied—experiencing overheating in their natural habitats, according to a new study published in Nature.
The research warns that this percentage could rise to 7.5 percent under a projected 4°C global warming scenario, threatening the survival of many species.
Researchers compared the heat tolerance of amphibians across various microhabitats—terrestrial, arboreal, and aquatic—with actual temperature data from the past decade.
They assessed how current warming, as well as potential future warming of 2°C and 4°C, could impact the animals’ ability to cope.
“Impacts escalate under different climate warming scenarios,” said lead author, Patrice Pottier, a postdoctoral researcher at the University of New South Wales.
“Going above +2°C of global warming can be a tipping point where we may see a lot of local extinctions.”
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Terrestrial amphibians are at the highest risk, while species in aquatic or arboreal environments fared better due to cooler conditions.
Vulnerability also varied by geography, with species in the Northern Hemisphere farther from the equator facing more overheating threats than those closer to it in the Southern Hemisphere.
The potential loss of amphibians could disrupt entire ecosystems. Amphibians are a vital food source for other animals and play a key role in controlling pests like mosquitoes.
Already, about 41 percent of over 8,000 amphibian species are considered threatened, largely due to habitat loss and disease—with climate change adding a worsening burden.
The researchers emphasized the importance of preserving shaded environments and water sources, which help amphibians regulate their body temperature.
“If you provide amphibians with enough water and shade, a lot of them can survive extreme heat events,” Pottier said.
Still, the study cautions that even these findings may underestimate the full threat, as they rely on conservative warming estimates and ideal access to cooling environments.
Pottier stressed that limiting global temperature rise is critical to the future of amphibians: “All efforts to limit global warming are needed to protect the world’s amphibians.”
