Climate change drives air turbulence surge – UK don

 

By Abbas Nazil

Severe turbulence incidents are rising significantly, prompting a wave of innovation across the aviation industry as scientists and engineers seek solutions to combat the increasing chaos in the skies.

This shift is largely attributed to climate change, which has intensified clear-air turbulence — a type of rough air undetectable by satellites, radar, or the human eye.

According to Paul Williams, a professor of atmospheric science at the University of Reading, severe clear-air turbulence has jumped by 55% since 1979 and is projected to triple globally by the 2050s.

The dangers of turbulence are no longer limited to discomfort.

Recent incidents, including a violent Singapore Airlines flight over Myanmar and a United Airlines Boeing 787 hit near the Philippines, led to serious injuries and shocked passengers.

Besides jeopardizing safety, turbulence causes financial burdens through aircraft wear and tear, longer flight times, increased fuel consumption, and higher emissions.

Historically, the aviation industry focused on avoiding turbulence or simply reinforcing aircraft to withstand it.

But with global turbulence patterns worsening, new strategies are being developed to reduce its effects in real time.

One such innovation comes from Turbulence Solutions, an Austrian company developing adaptive “flaplets” — small extensions attached to aircraft wings that adjust their angle based on real-time airflow pressure.

These devices mimic birds’ feather adjustments during flight and can reportedly cut passenger-perceived turbulence loads by over 80 percent.

Though currently tested only on smaller planes, CEO Andras Galffy believes the technology is scalable to commercial airliners.

Other solutions involve artificial intelligence.

Ricardo Vinuesa, a researcher at Sweden’s KTH Royal Institute of Technology, has worked with colleagues using AI to manage synthetic air jets on aircraft wings.

This technique helps stabilize airflow using deep reinforcement learning, which allows the system to adjust through trial-and-error, similar to how humans learn physical skills.

Unlike traditional black-box AI models, their system is “explainable,” identifying which measurements drive its predictions — a feature that could bolster safety and trust.

Lidar technology, already familiar in self-driving cars, is another promising tool.

It can map air currents ahead of an aircraft.

However, high-altitude conditions make these instruments bulky, power-hungry, and impractical for commercial use — at least for now.

NASA is also contributing through innovations like ultra-sensitive microphones that detect low-frequency sounds from turbulent air as far as 300 miles away.

Efforts to improve turbulence forecasting have progressed, too.

Williams noted that while only 60% of turbulence was forecastable two decades ago, today’s figure has risen to 75%.

Forecast systems like the Graphical Turbulence Guidance tool, which Williams helped develop, are now widely used by pilots.

But access to detailed turbulence data remains a challenge, as scientists often must purchase such data from airlines.

To bridge this gap, the International Air Transport Association’s “Turbulence Aware” program now collects and shares anonymized real-time data from flights, with participation from major airlines like Air France and EasyJet.

Meanwhile, apps like Turbli provide passengers with preflight turbulence forecasts, though experts caution against overreliance.

As air travel evolves alongside global climate patterns, a mix of predictive technology, AI, and adaptive design may be key to ensuring smoother — and safer — skies in the future.