By Abdullahi Lukman
Children born today are likely to experience a significantly higher number of extreme climate events than previous generations, according to a new study by scientists from Vrije Universiteit Brussel (VUB) and Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC).
The research highlights the growing generational and geographic inequalities of the climate crisis, emphasizing that young people—especially those in low-income countries—will disproportionately bear the brunt of environmental upheaval.
The study finds that even if global warming is capped at 1.5°C, more than half of children born in 2020 will face an “unprecedented life,” defined as a lifetime exposure to climate extremes that would have had less than a 1-in-10,000 chance of occurring without man-made climate change.
This includes frequent and intense heatwaves, floods, wildfires, droughts, and tropical cyclones.
Researchers reached this conclusion by combining demographic data with climate model projections to assess exposure across generations.
The results revealed a stark generational divide: while only 16 percent of those born in 1960 would experience such extremes, that number rises to 52 percent for children born in 2020—and exceeds 90 percent under a 3.5°C warming scenario.
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Geographic disparities compound the issue. Children in tropical and low-income regions are particularly vulnerable, often lacking the infrastructure and resources needed to adapt or recover from such events.
Under current climate policies, 95 percent of the most socioeconomically vulnerable children born in 2020 will experience extreme heatwaves in their lifetime, compared to 78 percent of their wealthier peers.
The release of the study comes ahead of COP30 in Brazil, where global leaders will meet to strengthen climate commitments.
Scientists warn that current policies put the world on track for 2.7°C of warming—far beyond the 1.5°C threshold needed to reduce the risks faced by future generations.
“This is not just a forecast—it’s a call to action,” said Dr. Wim Thiery, senior author of the study.
“We still have time to change course, but the window is rapidly closing. Children must be at the heart of climate action.”
The study underscores that today’s decisions on emissions and climate policy will determine whether millions of children inherit a livable planet—or a future defined by relentless and unmanageable climate extremes.
