Nigeria likes to say it can feed itself. The land is vast. The farmers are many. The climate is favourable. Yet every year, the country spends billions importing food it claims it can grow. This contradiction exposes a harsh truth that Nigeria must confront: food self-sufficiency cannot be achieved solely with conventional agricultural practices. Indeed, the reliance on traditional farming methods and seasonal rainfall, coupled with a lack of modern inputs and technologies, significantly hinders the nation’s capacity for food independence, leaving it susceptible to climate shocks and import dependencies.
The projected 60% increase in global food demand by 2050 further exacerbates this challenge, making reliance on current agricultural approaches unsustainable for Nigeria’s growing population.
This precarious situation is compounded by internal challenges such as low agricultural productivity, a heavy burden of disease, and the loss of lives and property due to diverse environmental issues and unregulated anthropogenic activities.
These factors collectively contribute to a significant food deficit, with Nigeria importing approximately 2 million tons of rice annually to meet its domestic demand, despite a large percentage of its population engaged in agriculture. This reliance on imports, particularly for staple foods like wheat, where only 100,000 tons are produced against an annual demand of 3 million tons, underscores a critical gap in domestic food production capabilities.
Furthermore, the oil industry’s dominance has diverted crucial attention and resources away from agricultural development, thereby contributing to the decline of local food production and exacerbating food insecurity in Nigeria. This historical shift, beginning in the 1970s with the advent of petro-dollars, transformed Nigeria from a food-exporting nation to one heavily reliant on imports, despite possessing the 11th largest arable land globally.
Despite its vast agricultural potential, with 79 million hectares of arable land of which 32 million are cultivated, Nigeria annually expends approximately 1 trillion naira on food imports, largely due to insufficient production, inadequate storage, and inefficient distribution networks.
These systemic deficiencies, including an outdated land tenure system and minimal irrigation development, contribute to a low average cereal yield of 1.2 metric tons per hectare and substantial post-harvest losses, further undermining food security. Moreover, inadequate budgetary allocations and inconsistent policy implementation continue to plague the agricultural sector, leading to a significant increase in undernourished individuals despite numerous government programs.
This is not an ideological argument. It is a practical one.
Nigeria’s population has crossed 225 million and continues to grow rapidly. Food production has not kept pace. Most Nigerian farmers still depend on rain-fed systems, manual labour, and unimproved seeds—methods that have changed little in decades.
The result is predictably low productivity. Nigerian maize yields average about two tonnes per hectare, while countries that have embraced modern agricultural technologies harvest three to five times more from the same land. Rice, sorghum and wheat follow the same pattern. A nation cannot feed a fast-growing population with slow-growing yields.
For years, Nigeria has leaned on the argument of “abundant land.” That argument no longer holds. Urban expansion, desertification in the North, erosion and flooding in the South, and violent farmer–herder conflicts have shrunk usable farmland.
More than a third of Nigeria’s arable land is already degraded. Clearing forests to plant more crops is not a food strategy—it is an environmental disaster in slow motion. Food security today depends on yield, not acreage.
Conventional farming assumes stable seasons. Nigeria no longer has them. Rainfall is erratic. Floods destroy farms in one region while drought cripples another. Pests and diseases are spreading faster and wider.
Traditional crop varieties and practices are ill-equipped for this reality. Expecting them to deliver food security under worsening climate stress is not optimism—it is denial.
Even when Nigerian farmers succeed, up to 40 per cent of food is lost after harvest due to poor storage, spoilage, and contamination. Conventional systems do little to prevent these losses. Growing food that never reaches consumers does not count as food security.
Despite decades of agricultural programmes, Nigeria still imports wheat, rice, sugar, fish, and dairy at enormous cost. If conventional agriculture were sufficient, these imports would be declining—not rising.
Food import bills drain foreign exchange, weaken the naira and expose the country to global shocks. A nation that cannot feed itself cannot claim economic sovereignty.
This is not an attack on farmers or tradition. Conventional agriculture sustains millions of livelihoods and remains culturally important. But romanticising tradition will not feed 300 million Nigerians.
Every country that has achieved food self-sufficiency did so by embracing science: improved seeds, mechanisation, irrigation, biotechnology, digital extension services, and efficient value chains. Nigeria cannot be the exception to this global rule.
The question is no longer whether Nigeria values conventional agriculture. It is whether Nigeria values food security enough to go beyond it. Continuing to rely almost exclusively on traditional practices guarantees one outcome: persistent hunger, rising imports, and deepening vulnerability.
Food security in the 21st century is a science and innovation challenge. Until Nigeria accepts this fact and acts on it boldly, self-sufficiency will remain a slogan—not a reality.
