According to a recent study published in the American Meteorological Society’s journal Weather, Climate, and Society (WCAS) on 27 April 2023, climate change is identified as a crucial factor behind the patterns of maritime piracy in the East African and South China Sea regions.
The research, conducted by Bo Jiang, an assistant professor at the University of Macau’s Faculty of Social Sciences, and Gary LaFree, a distinguished university professor of criminology and criminal justice at the University of Maryland, College Park, reveals the intricate correlation between climate change and sea crime.
The study indicates that escalating sea surface temperatures impact local fisheries in varying ways, affecting the timing and success of pirate attacks.
The authors of the study observed that the impact of increasing sea surface temperatures was contradictory in the two piracy hotspots: warmer seas had an unfavourable effect on East African fisheries, resulting in increased piracy, while they had a positive impact on South China Sea fisheries, leading to reduced piracy in those waters.
Piracy in the coastal regions of East Africa and the South China Sea is a significant security concern and costs the shipping industry billions of dollars annually.
According to LaFree, around 90% of the world’s traded goods are transported by sea, making it an integral aspect of international commerce.
However, Jiang emphasized that research on pressing matters such as the correlation between piracy and climate change has been scant due to a lack of interdisciplinary expertise. As a result, he called for more interdisciplinary research in the future.
Jiang and LaFree have established a strong connection between rising sea temperatures, fisheries, and pirate attacks in their research, even while controlling for other factors such as economic strain, the presence of private security guards on board, and local political corruption.
The authors analyzed decades of pirate attacks spanning from the late 1990s to the early 2010s to demonstrate the importance of this relationship.
LaFree noted that they observed statistically significant, measurable differences in the timeline of about 20 years.
He expressed surprise at how rapidly these changes were taking place, especially when considering the likely acceleration of climate change in the future. This could be attributed in part to the sensitivity of fish to temperature, which causes them to migrate to more suitable areas when there are slight temperature changes.
Earlier studies have shown that when economic conditions are unfavourable, fishermen, who already possess seafaring skills, may turn to piracy. Jiang stated that in the waters around Singapore, there are many fishermen who are known as “standby pirates.”
He also noted that this study is one of the first criminological analyses to examine the economic decision-making involved when fishermen become pirates and when they stop. It provides direct evidence for rational choice theory, demonstrating that local fishermen’s cost-benefit analysis affects piracy levels.
Jiang and LaFree are concerned about the maritime security trends they discovered, particularly in East Africa.
“If our arguments are correct and sea temperatures continue to rise as projected, the battle against piracy in East Africa will become increasingly challenging,” they wrote in the WCAS paper.
Jiang highlighted that the crucial question is how to diversify the income profile of fishermen. He believes that this is a pressing issue for the governments of Somalia, Kenya, and other coastal states in East Africa to address.
LaFree emphasized that, much like climate change, crime problems are now global issues, and strong international participation is critical.
He noted that the new insights from satellite technology and big data approaches are revolutionizing fields such as criminology.
“While the social problems we face are becoming more severe, I believe our scientific tools for studying them and finding solutions are improving,” LaFree added.
He sees the next 20-30 years as a race between the worsening of social issues and the advancement of technologies to tackle these problems.