By Abdullahi Lukman
A new study by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research has found that global warming has significantly accelerated since around 2015, marking the fastest rise in global temperatures since modern records began.
Published on Friday, in the journal Geophysical Research Letters, the research shows that Earth’s temperature has increased at an estimated rate of about 0.35°C per decade over the past ten years.
This is considerably higher than the average warming rate of just under 0.2°C per decade recorded between 1970 and 2015.
Researchers analysed five major global temperature datasets—including those from NASA, NOAA, HadCRUT, Berkeley Earth and ERA5—to determine the long-term warming trend.
By removing natural influences such as volcanic eruptions, solar cycles and the El Niño climate pattern, scientists were able to isolate the underlying warming signal more clearly.
According to the study, the adjusted data show a statistically significant acceleration in global warming with more than 98 percent certainty across all datasets analysed.
Lead author Stefan Rahmstorf said the acceleration becomes noticeable in data beginning around 2013 or 2014.
The research team used two statistical approaches—quadratic trend analysis and a piecewise linear model—to confirm that the warming rate has increased compared with previous decades.
Co-author Grant Foster explained that filtering out natural climate variations reduces background “noise” in temperature records, making long-term warming trends easier to detect.
Even after adjusting for the effects of El Niño and periods of high solar activity, the years 2023 and 2024 remain the two warmest years recorded since instrumental measurements began in 1880.
Although the study focused on identifying the statistical acceleration rather than its specific causes, researchers noted that climate models already indicate that faster warming is possible under current global conditions.
Rahmstorf warned that if the warming rate recorded over the past decade continues, the world could exceed the 1.5°C temperature limit set under the Paris Agreement before 2030.
He added that the future pace of warming will largely depend on how quickly global carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels are reduced to zero.