By Abbas Nazil
Russia has stated that some Western sanctions must be lifted before it commits to a maritime ceasefire with Ukraine, contradicting an earlier announcement by the United States that the two sides had agreed to halt strikes in the Black Sea.
The Kremlin specifically demands the removal of sanctions on the state agricultural bank, Rosselkhozbank, and the restoration of its access to the Swift international payment system.
The demand follows a US declaration that a ceasefire had been reached after three days of peace talks in Saudi Arabia. However, conflicting statements emerged soon after.
Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelensky, rejected Russia’s conditions, stating that the deal did not require sanctions relief and should take effect immediately. He accused Moscow of attempting to manipulate the agreement.
In the hours following the US announcement, Russia launched a drone attack on the Ukrainian port city of Mykolaiv, which Zelensky condemned as a clear indication that Russia was not interested in peace.
Ukraine’s navy spokesperson, Dmytro Pletenchuk, asserted that the ceasefire’s primary benefit for Ukraine would be to halt Russian airstrikes on its port infrastructure, rather than changing control of the sea, where Ukraine currently holds the advantage.
Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the European Union and its allies have imposed financial restrictions on Russian banks, including suspending their access to Swift, to disrupt payments for Russian energy and agricultural exports.
Lifting these restrictions would require EU approval, which appears unlikely given Europe’s continued support for Ukraine.
A European Commission spokesperson reiterated that the withdrawal of all Russian forces from Ukraine remains a key condition for reconsidering sanctions.
US President Donald Trump commented on the ceasefire negotiations, suggesting that Russia might be deliberately stalling.
He speculated that while Russia could want the war to end, it might be prolonging the conflict for strategic reasons.
Although the Black Sea has not been a central focus of the war in recent months, a ceasefire could have economic and strategic implications.
Ukraine has successfully exported agricultural goods using a western Black Sea corridor, while Russian exports have struggled due to targeted attacks on its fleet.
Dr. Jenny Mathers, an expert on Russian politics, noted that a ceasefire would significantly benefit Russia by improving its agricultural export capabilities, whereas Ukraine has managed to sustain its grain shipments despite the ongoing conflict.
The Black Sea Grain Initiative, which allowed the safe passage of commercial ships transporting Ukrainian exports, collapsed in mid-2023 after Russia withdrew, arguing that financial sanctions hindered its exports.
Since then, Russia has threatened to treat any vessel bound for Ukraine as a military target.
The UN has emphasized the importance of freedom of navigation in the Black Sea for global food security and supply chains and is currently working with Russia to facilitate food and fertilizer exports.
Despite the uncertainty surrounding the ceasefire’s implementation, the US expressed optimism that it could help reopen a vital trade route and contribute to a lasting peace.
Ukraine and Russia have also agreed to continue working on measures to prevent attacks on each other’s energy infrastructure, according to the White House.
The Black Sea, which borders Ukraine, Russia, Romania, Bulgaria, Turkey, and Georgia, is also adjacent to Russian-occupied Crimea.
While Ukraine maintains control over much of the region’s waters, Russian forces continue to threaten its port infrastructure.
If implemented, the ceasefire could provide some relief for Ukraine’s port cities, though the overall balance of the war remains unchanged, as most of the fighting is taking place on land.