By Abbas Nazil
Coffee-growing nations that supply three-quarters of the world’s beans are experiencing dramatically more days of extreme heat, raising serious concerns about the future of global coffee production amid accelerating climate breakdown.
An analysis by Climate Central found that the top five coffee-producing countries recorded an average of 57 additional days per year above 30C between 2021 and 2025 compared with a world without carbon pollution.
Temperatures above 30C are considered harmful for coffee plants, particularly arabica beans, which are highly sensitive to heat and direct sunlight.
The findings highlight escalating risks for countries such as Brazil, El Salvador and Ethiopia, all major contributors to global supply.
El Salvador was identified as the worst-affected nation, with an estimated 99 additional days of coffee-harming heat annually.
Brazil, which accounts for approximately 37% of global coffee production, experienced 70 extra days above 30C.
Ethiopia, responsible for about 6.4% of global output and regarded as the birthplace of coffee, recorded 34 additional days of extreme heat.
Coffee is grown primarily within the so-called “bean belt” between the tropics of Cancer and Capricorn, where temperature and rainfall patterns must remain relatively stable for crops to flourish.
Industry estimates suggest around 2bn cups of coffee are consumed worldwide each day, underscoring the scale of potential disruption.
Economic pressures are already visible, with the World Bank reporting that arabica and robusta prices nearly doubled between 2023 and 2025.
In February 2025, coffee prices reached an all-time high, reflecting supply strains linked in part to climate-related impacts.
In Ethiopia alone, more than 4 million households depend on coffee as their primary income source, and the crop accounts for nearly a third of the country’s export earnings.
Dejene Dadi, general manager of the Oromia Coffee Farmers Cooperatives Union, said farmers are witnessing firsthand the effects of prolonged heat stress on crops.
He noted that without adequate shade, arabica plants produce fewer beans and become increasingly vulnerable to disease.
The cooperative has distributed energy-efficient cookstoves to reduce deforestation in forested areas that provide essential canopy cover for coffee trees.
Campaigners argue that adaptation finance remains severely inadequate for smallholder farmers, who produce between 60% and 80% of global coffee supplies.
A recent study found that in 2021, smallholders received just 0.36% of the funding estimated to be necessary for adapting to climate change impacts.
Researchers compared observed temperature data in coffee-growing regions with modeled projections of a world without carbon pollution to determine the additional heat burden attributable to climate change.
Without significant policy intervention and climate mitigation, experts warn that rising temperatures could increasingly render traditional coffee-growing regions unsuitable for cultivation, threatening both global markets and the livelihoods of millions.