By Abbas Nazil & Abdullahi Lukman
Nigeria’s food insecurity is projected to worsen in the coming years unless decisive and coordinated interventions are implemented to address its root causes, according to experts and stakeholders.
Professor Ibrahim Abubakar, a Professor of Agronomy at Ahmadu Bello University, Zaria, has warned that a combination of worsening insecurity, climate change, low mechanisation, and poor agricultural practices is steadily reducing food production across the country.
He stressed that if left unaddressed, these issues will increase the vulnerability of millions of Nigerians and push more households into hunger and poverty.
According to recent data from the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO), more than 30 million Nigerians are already at risk of acute hunger, with 30.6 million projected to face severe food and nutrition insecurity during the upcoming lean season from June to August.
These alarming figures have raised concern among humanitarian agencies and nutritionists tracking Nigeria’s food crisis.
Erratic weather patterns, rising temperatures, and unpredictable rainfall linked to climate change are severely affecting crop yields, Professor Abubakar explained.
Most smallholder farmers in Nigeria lack access to modern climate forecasting tools and adaptive technologies, leaving them exposed to environmental shocks.
Additionally, climate-related outbreaks of pests such as fall armyworms and Tuta absoluta continue to destroy major food crops like maize and tomatoes, especially during dry spells or periods of intense humidity.
Insecurity remains another major factor driving food shortages. Armed conflict, kidnapping, and banditry have displaced millions, particularly in the North-East and Middle Belt regions.
The World Food Programme recently reported that 2.2 million people remain displaced in Borno, Yobe, and Adamawa states, with another 4.4 million people food insecure in those areas.
A study in Benue State found that just a one percent rise in insecurity causes a 0.21 percent drop in crop production and a 0.31 percent decrease in livestock output.
Many farmers have been forced to abandon their land due to threats, attacks, and fear for their lives.
Alhaji Muda Farouk, President of the All Farmers Association of Nigeria, confirmed that theft and violence have become routine for farmers.
In some areas, he said, people have been killed while trying to cultivate their fields, further discouraging farming activities.
He added that the association is working to train farmers on detecting security threats, although he withheld details due to the sensitivity of the issue.
Soaring inflation, rising food prices, and the removal of fuel subsidies have exacerbated the crisis. Transportation costs have surged, making it even harder to access affordable food.
The depreciation of the naira has pushed the cost of agricultural inputs like fertiliser and seeds out of reach for many farmers.
Despite initiatives like the $1.2 billion Green Imperative Programme, Nigeria’s agricultural mechanisation level remains critically low at 0.027 horsepower per hectare—far below the FAO’s recommended 1.5 hp/ha.
Agricultural advocacy group Noba Africa has called for increased investment in empowering smallholder farmers, urging both government and private sector actors to improve access to quality inputs, training, credit, and markets.
Mrs. Tabawa Atiku, chairperson of the Budget Committee Group, stressed the importance of gender-sensitive policies and timely budget releases, particularly for rural women farmers.
She also highlighted the need to expand agricultural extension services to guide farmers in adopting better practices.
Registered dietitian Olusola Malomo urged a holistic approach to solving the crisis, calling for climate-smart agriculture, youth engagement, private sector partnerships, and urban farming initiatives.
He warned that malnutrition levels are rising, with 1.3 million children across West and Central Africa at risk of losing access to therapeutic food by May 2025—80,000 of them in Nigeria.
Without swift action, he cautioned, the nation risks edging closer to a full-blown famine.