By Abbas Nazil
Nigeria’s largest off-grid electricity programme faces the challenge of connecting about 11 million more people before its scheduled completion in December 2028, as progress under the Distributed Access through Renewable Energy Scale-up project remains significantly below its overall targets.
The DARES programme has so far provided new or improved electricity access to 5.3 million Nigerians, representing less than one-third of its target of 16.2 million people by the end of the project.
The programme has also enabled 41.25 megawatts of renewable energy capacity as of June 2026, compared with the 465MW capacity it is designed to deliver.
Solar home system deployment, however, has recorded faster progress, reaching 1.046 million units against a target of 2.75 million.
The number of deployed solar home systems has increased substantially from approximately 709,500 recorded in March, indicating growing momentum in the programme’s effort to expand electricity access through decentralised renewable energy solutions.
DARES was approved in December 2023 and is supported by three International Development Association credit facilities from the World Bank with a combined value of $750 million.
Recent regulatory changes have helped accelerate implementation and unlock additional financing for the programme.
The Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission introduced a new mini-grid regulatory framework in April and approved a derogation that increased the capacity ceiling for DARES-eligible projects to 10 megawatts.
The World Bank said Nigeria had met four performance-based conditions linked to the programme, allowing up to $200 million in previously restricted funding to be released, while an additional $243 million has also been pledged.
More than $430 million of DARES funding is now fully committed, strengthening the financial backing available for expanding off-grid electricity infrastructure.
Despite the progress, the World Bank continues to classify Nigeria’s political and governance risks as high, alongside high macroeconomic risk.
The assessment reflects concerns including currency volatility and the continuing economic effects of reforms such as the removal of fuel subsidies.
The programme’s progress contrasts with Nigeria’s earlier experience under the Power Sector Recovery Programme, another World Bank-supported initiative that was closed ahead of schedule after key reform conditions were not met.
In May, Nigeria and the World Bank agreed to cancel $717.7 million in undisbursed financing under the programme and bring its closing date forward to May 31, 2026.
The experience highlights the importance of meeting performance conditions in securing development financing and maintaining momentum in Nigeria’s power sector reforms.
The next phase of DARES will also depend heavily on state governments as electricity regulation continues to shift towards subnational authorities.
Nigeria has transferred electricity regulatory responsibilities to 16 state commissions over the past two years, allowing those states to regulate their electricity markets, license suppliers and determine tariffs within their jurisdictions.
The World Bank and the Nigeria Governors’ Forum have identified technical assistance as necessary to strengthen state-level electricity institutions.
Through DARES, the Rural Electrification Agency is expected to support interested states and help build the institutional capacity needed to expand decentralised electricity systems.
With millions of Nigerians still awaiting reliable electricity access, the programme’s ability to accelerate connections, expand renewable generation and strengthen state-level institutions will be critical to determining whether its December 2028 targets can be achieved.