By Grace Samuel
The IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) has predicted that the Greater Horn of Africa will experience wetter-than-usual weather conditions during the upcoming rainy season from March to May.
Countries in the region, including, Kenya, Somalia, southern Ethiopia, South Sudan, Uganda, Burundi, Rwanda, and north-western Tanzania, had experienced droughts in 2023 due to El Nino weather conditions.
The prediction was made at the Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum, where climate scientists, government and non-government organizations, and sectors affected by climate change come together.
Although the improved rainfall in the October to December 2023 period and the predicted wetter conditions from March to May are positive for food security following the long-lasting drought in the region, there is a concern that flooding may negatively affect local communities and people’s livelihoods, according to Dr. Guleid Artan, the director of ICPAC.
He urged everyone to come together and use climate information to promote resilient and sustainable development in the region.
Dr. Wilfran Moufouma Okia, the head of regional climate prediction services at WMO, stated that these seasonal forecasts are part of a range of products provided by the WMO community as part of the Early Warnings for All initiative.
He also mentioned that the shift from drought to heavy rainfall in early 2023 was a result of the transition from La Niña to El Niño conditions, which typically bring more rain to the Horn of Africa.
WMO has been backing regional climate outlook forums for over twenty years. These forums offer practical climate forecasts and information to aid in the preservation of lives and livelihoods.
They also assist crucial sectors such as agriculture, food security, water resource management, health, and disaster risk reduction.
ICPAC has implemented a seasonal forecast method based on the guidelines of the World Meteorological Organization. This method involves utilizing climate forecasts from nine Global Producing Centres and applying three calibration techniques.
The March to May period is crucial for rainfall in the equatorial regions of the Greater Horn of Africa, as it contributes to around 60% of the total annual rainfall.
ICPAC predicted that certain areas in the region, such as northern Tanzania, eastern Rwanda, southern and western Uganda, western Kenya, south-western Somalia, and parts of south-central Ethiopia, will experience an earlier or normal start to the rainy season.