By Abbas Nazil
Renewable energy in the Middle East and North Africa is set to enter a phase of unprecedented growth, according to a new report released by global energy consultancy DNV.
The report forecasts that the region’s solar and wind power capacity will increase tenfold by 2040, marking a major transformation in an area long associated with oil and gas production.
Titled The Rise of Renewables in the Gulf Region, the study predicts that variable renewable energy could supply about 85 percent of MENA’s electricity needs by 2060.
The findings signal a potential turning point in the region’s energy identity as countries diversify away from fossil fuels.
DNV notes that while MENA has historically powered global markets through oil and gas exports, economic and technological changes are reshaping domestic energy systems.
Brice Le Gallo, Vice President and Regional Director for Asia Pacific Energy Systems at DNV, said falling renewable technology costs are driving this shift.
He explained that until 2020, most renewable expansion came from energy-importing countries seeking to reduce fossil fuel dependence.
In recent years, however, fossil fuel–exporting nations have begun rapidly expanding renewable capacity within their own borders.
According to Le Gallo, this acceleration is driven by declining costs of solar, wind and battery technologies, combined with abundant natural resources and ambitious climate targets.
He added that wealthy Gulf nations are also investing heavily in renewable projects across neighbouring countries and the wider Middle East.
Despite the rapid expansion, the report indicates that renewable electricity generation will not surpass gas-fired power until after 2040.
This delay is attributed to electricity demand growing faster than renewable supply.
Key drivers of demand include rising needs for space cooling, electric vehicles, data centres and green hydrogen production.
DNV projects that electricity will account for 35 percent of total energy demand in MENA by 2060, up from 17 percent today.
Of that electricity mix, around 45 percent is expected to come from solar power and 40 percent from wind energy.
Ditlev Engel, Chief Executive Officer of DNV Energy Systems, said renewables are not replacing hydrocarbons overnight but are steadily reshaping the power system.
He noted that Gulf countries are developing some of the world’s largest solar and energy storage projects while continuing to supply global oil and gas markets.
Engel said the transition is being driven largely by economics rather than ideology.
He explained that renewable energy now delivers some of the world’s lowest-cost electricity.
Clean power, he added, is becoming essential for industrial competitiveness and future hydrogen production.
With more than 300 sunny days each year and strong desert wind conditions, MENA is considered one of the most suitable regions globally for renewable generation.
The report identifies 2040 as a major tipping point for the region.
By that year, annual growth in renewable electricity is expected to exceed growth in total electricity demand.
This milestone would mark the beginning of real fossil fuel displacement in the power sector.
Jan Zschommler, DNV’s Market Area Manager for the Middle East and Africa, said the region has moved from policy discussion to large-scale deployment.
He stated that utility-scale solar, wind and storage projects are now being constructed at speeds capable of transforming national power mixes.
Solar capacity alone is projected to rise from 76 gigawatts in 2024 to 340 gigawatts by 2029.
By the end of the decade, solar is expected to generate nearly 20 percent of all electricity in the region.
Wind energy, though starting from a smaller base, is forecast to triple every decade between 2020 and 2060.
Combined solar and wind output across MENA is projected to grow about fourteen times by 2040.
Energy storage will play a crucial role in supporting this expansion.
DNV estimates that storage capacity will increase from roughly 36 gigawatt-hours today to nearly 9,500 gigawatt-hours by 2060.
Batteries are expected to gradually replace thermal power plants as the main source of short-term grid flexibility.
Several large-scale solar-plus-storage projects are already underway, including a one-gigawatt round-the-clock facility developed by Masdar in Abu Dhabi.
Utility-scale solar plants are also becoming significantly larger.
By 2030, around 80 percent of new projects are expected to exceed one gigawatt in capacity, compared with just 20 percent at the start of the decade.
The report cautions that challenges remain.
Electricity demand growth in the near term will be driven largely by buildings and desalination.
Between 2040 and 2060, demand will increasingly come from electric vehicles, artificial intelligence data centres and green hydrogen production.
Space cooling alone is projected to account for about 30 percent of electricity demand growth through 2035.
DNV concludes that while hydrocarbons will remain part of MENA’s energy system for decades, renewables are rapidly becoming the backbone of its future power supply.