By Abbas Nazil
Scientists say reaching net-zero emissions may not be enough to stop the long-term effects of climate change, warning that the world could need centuries of carbon dioxide removal to fully stabilize the planet’s climate.
New research published in Environmental Research Letters indicates that some forms of climate damage continue intensifying long after global temperatures stop rising.
Researchers found that even if the world succeeds in limiting warming to about 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, environmental changes such as sea-level rise and thawing permafrost could keep worsening for generations.
The study suggests that the commonly cited goal of achieving net-zero emissions should be viewed as only the first stage of a much longer climate strategy rather than the final solution.
Lead researcher Johannes Bednar from the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis analyzed long-term climate scenarios and found that slow-responding systems in the Earth’s environment continue changing even after temperatures stabilize.
According to the research, oceans, ice sheets, and frozen northern soils react gradually to warming, meaning the impacts of climate change can persist for decades or centuries after global temperatures stop increasing.
Heat stored in the world’s oceans continues causing water to expand, contributing to rising sea levels even when warming slows.
At the same time, thawing permafrost exposes ancient organic materials that microbes break down, releasing carbon dioxide and methane into the atmosphere and intensifying climate change further.
Scientists estimate that emissions from thawing permafrost alone could increase the total amount of carbon removal needed in the future by about five percent, even under relatively optimistic climate scenarios.
The research also aligns with warnings from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change that sea levels will likely continue rising well beyond the year 2100 even if global warming is successfully limited to around 1.5°C.
Because of these slow-moving environmental responses, researchers say the world may eventually need to move beyond net-zero emissions toward “net-negative” emissions.
This means removing more carbon dioxide from the atmosphere than humanity produces each year for long periods of time.
The models used in the study show that continued carbon removal after peak warming could gradually reduce long-term climate risks rather than simply serving as a temporary tool to correct missed temperature targets.
Scientists therefore describe carbon removal as a form of permanent climate infrastructure that may need to be maintained for centuries.
However, maintaining such long-term climate commitments raises serious questions about cost, fairness, and whether political systems can sustain policies that extend far beyond current government timelines.
Legal debates about long-term climate responsibility have also intensified following a 2025 advisory opinion issued by the International Court of Justice stating that countries have a duty to prevent significant environmental harm caused by climate change.
Researchers argue that this legal perspective supports the idea that governments may need to adopt climate strategies that extend far beyond current targets such as the widely discussed 2050 deadlines.
The findings suggest that climate safety will likely require a two-stage approach involving rapid emission reductions in the short term followed by long-term carbon removal efforts that could continue for centuries.
Scientists conclude that while international agreements like the Paris Agreement remain essential for limiting global warming, they should be seen as milestones in a much longer process aimed at fully stabilizing the Earth’s climate system.