By Abbas Nazil
A new analysis by the International Institute for Environment and Development warns that the number of countries facing critical food insecurity could nearly triple to 24 if global temperatures rise by 2°C, highlighting the growing risks posed by the climate crisis to global food systems.
The study finds that low-income nations will be disproportionately affected, with their food systems projected to deteriorate seven times faster than those in wealthier countries, further widening global inequality.
According to Ritu Bharadwaj, countries already struggling with poverty, fragile institutions, and weak safety nets are expected to experience the most severe impacts, despite contributing the least to global greenhouse gas emissions.
Currently, nearly 59 percent of the global population lives in countries with below-average food security, and climate change is expected to intensify this disparity as environmental pressures increase.
The research introduces a Food Security Index covering 162 countries, assessing vulnerability under warming scenarios of 1.5°C, 2°C, and 4°C above preindustrial levels, and evaluating key pillars such as availability, accessibility, utilisation, and sustainability.
Findings show that sustainability and utilisation are the most climate-sensitive aspects, meaning disruptions in water, sanitation, and health systems could lead to malnutrition even where food supply exists.
The analysis also indicates that rising temperatures will increase food prices and disrupt markets, reducing access to food and triggering broader economic instability.
Countries including Somalia, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Afghanistan, Haiti, and Mozambique are identified as among the most vulnerable, with food insecurity projected to rise by more than 30 percent under a 2°C warming scenario.
In contrast, high-income countries are expected to see an average increase of just 3 percent, largely due to their financial capacity to offset domestic agricultural losses through global trade.
Across low-income countries, food insecurity is projected to rise by 22 percent on average, despite these nations contributing only about 1 percent of global emissions, while wealthier and upper-middle-income countries account for more than 80 percent.
The study also highlights how interconnected global food systems are, noting that climate shocks in one major producing region can ripple across international supply chains and create price volatility worldwide.
Even countries that remain relatively food secure will not be immune to these disruptions, as global markets react to shortages and shifting production patterns.
Researchers warn that the consequences extend beyond food shortages, potentially leading to widespread instability, conflict, and forced migration if fragile states experience systemic collapse.
The findings echo broader concerns about climate-related threats to national and global security, as worsening food crises could intensify geopolitical tensions and humanitarian emergencies.
Experts stress that urgent action is needed to prevent these outcomes, including strengthening social protection systems, investing in climate-resilient agriculture, and improving water and soil management practices.
The report underscores that without significant intervention, climate change will not only deepen hunger and inequality but also reshape global stability, making food security one of the most pressing challenges of the coming decades.