By Abbas Nazil
Climate change could expose more than 1.1 billion people to severe food crises by the year 2100 if greenhouse gas emissions remain high, according to new research by Giovanni Strona of the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre, published by The Conversation.
The study warns that without urgent global action to cut carbon emissions and transition to sustainable development, hundreds of millions of people, including over 600 million children, will face at least one episode of extreme food insecurity before the end of the century.
Currently, more than 295 million people worldwide experienced hunger in 2025 due to conflict, displacement, economic shocks, and climate-related disasters, but projections show that climate change alone could significantly worsen the crisis in the decades ahead.
Using an artificial intelligence model calibrated with food insecurity data from the Famine Early Warning Systems Network, Strona analyzed temperature and precipitation trends alongside demographic projections to estimate future exposure to famine-level crises.
The findings indicate that under a high-emissions scenario, over 1.16 billion people will encounter severe food insecurity at least once by 2100, with Africa and parts of Asia expected to suffer the most intense impacts.
Africa alone could see more than 170 million people exposed to severe food crises in 2099, a figure comparable to the combined populations of Italy, France, and Spain today.
The Horn of Africa and regions across the Sahel are projected to become major hotspots, forming extensive zones of high vulnerability stretching across eastern and central Africa.
The research highlights that demographic growth in already climate-sensitive regions will intensify the burden, meaning younger populations will face disproportionate risks.
More than 600 million children are expected to experience their first severe food crisis before the age of five, and over 200 million newborns could face such risks within their first year of life.
However, the study emphasizes that policy decisions can dramatically alter these outcomes.
If governments aggressively cut fossil fuel use and expand renewable energy while promoting sustainable development, the number of people exposed to food crises could be reduced by as much as 780 million by 2100.
Annual global exposure to severe food insecurity could drop from an average of 89 million people between 2005 and 2015 to about 42 million by the end of the century under strong climate mitigation efforts.
Africa, in particular, could significantly reduce future exposure if conflicts decline and sustainable policies are implemented after 2050.
The research underscores that food security depends not only on increasing food production but also on building resilient systems capable of withstanding floods, droughts, and other climate shocks.
Experts warn that failure to act decisively on climate change could result in catastrophic humanitarian consequences, making immediate global cooperation on decarbonization, equity, and adaptation essential to safeguard future generations.