By Abdullahi Lukman
A new study has warned that Mount Kenya Forest, a crucial ecosystem for carbon sequestration, water regulation, and biodiversity conservation, will lose up to 55 percent of its vegetation by 2040 due to the combined effects of climate change and human activity.
The most significant losses are expected in the forest’s lower zones, which are more vulnerable to climate-induced stress.
The research highlights the critical role of precipitation in sustaining the forest’s health, noting that changing rainfall patterns and rising temperatures have already led to observable shifts in vegetation composition and species distribution.
This disruption is reducing the forest’s resilience and threatening its ecological balance.
Mount Kenya’s forest, which supplies over 40% of Kenya’s freshwater, serves as a vital water tower for agriculture, hydroelectric power, and urban consumption.
However, the ongoing decline in forest cover, exacerbated by illegal logging, agricultural encroachment, and unregulated grazing, is undermining its ability to provide these essential services.
The study also underscores the vulnerability of high-elevation ecosystems, where species are migrating downslope in response to warming trends.
This migration disrupts the natural ecological gradients, potentially leading to species loss and altered carbon cycling.
Additionally, the retreat of Mount Kenya’s glaciers, caused by rising temperatures, has worsened hydrological imbalances, further decreasing water availability for both human and ecological needs.
Between 2010 and 2020, significant vegetation loss was observed in the forest, with large areas of bare soil exposure linked to deforestation and agricultural expansion.
These changes suggest long-term structural damage to the forest’s ecosystem, including reduced canopy density and photosynthetic productivity.
The forest’s ability to store carbon, provide habitat connectivity, and regulate water flow may be severely compromised.
The lower montane zones of the forest are particularly vulnerable, both ecologically and due to intense human activity.
These areas face higher temperatures, erratic rainfall, and soil instability, making them especially prone to degradation.
With increased farming, settlement, and logging, these zones are at a higher risk of ecosystem service disruption, which could affect both local communities and the broader environment.
To address these challenges, the study recommends adaptive conservation strategies, including sustainable land-use planning through agroforestry, payment for ecosystem services (PES), and stricter regulations on land encroachment and charcoal production.
The research advocates for aligning national policies, such as the Participatory Forest Management (PFM) regulations and the National Climate Change Action Plan (NCCAP), with conservation efforts to safeguard both the forest’s ecological integrity and the livelihoods of local communities.
These recommendations emphasize the urgency of adapting forest management strategies to enhance resilience and protect the vital services provided by Mount Kenya Forest.