By Abbas Nazil
African governments, disaster agencies, humanitarian groups and civil society have been urged to intensify preparations for an anticipated El Niño that could rank among the strongest ever recorded in history.
The call was made during a virtual stakeholder convening organised by Africa’s leading think-tank, the Climate and Environmental Science Think Lab (CESTLAP) and attended by climate experts from across Africa and beyond.
The convening, which had Professor Hector Chigoree as the guest lead presenter, assessed the evolving 2026 El Niño and its potential implications for Africa .
Discussions centered on preparedness and response measures as agencies brace for possible weather-related disasters across the continent.
According to CESTLAP, Southern Africa will likely see hotter-than-normal temperatures and below-average rainfall during the main rainy season.
The think-tank projected the risks to include drought, heatwaves, reduced crops, water scarcity and pressure on hydropower.
Relying on current climate models, CESTLAP disclosed that the most vulnerable countries include South Africa, Zimbabwe, Zambia, Botswana, Namibia, Mozambique, Malawi and parts of Angola.
In contrast, it says East Africa and the Horn may receive above-average October–December rains, warning that this heightens risks of flooding, landslides, displacement, and outbreaks of malaria and cholera.
It noted that West Africa is expected to experience more variable, location-specific impacts, stressing the need for continuous national and regional climate monitoring and forecasting to guide local responses.
In his remarks, CESTLAP Chair and Convener, Professor Jimmy Adegoke, commended the guest presenter, Professor Hector Chigoree for delivering an engaging and intellectually stimulating presentation.
Prof. Adegoke who also praised the Q&A moderated by the think-tank’s second vice chair Dr. Lala Kounta, said it was insightful and helped deepen participants’ understanding of El Niño’s expected impacts across Africa.
He said leading global meteorological agencies are closely tracking rapid El Niño development in the tropical Pacific with forecasts indicating a high probability the event will develop and persist in coming months.
The climate think-tank warned that the emerging El Niño could be among the strongest on record with the potential to significantly alter weather and climate patterns across Africa.
CESTLAP explained that although El Niño originates in the equatorial Pacific, it drives year-to-year climate variability. It often influences rainfall and temperature, leading to droughts, floods, crop losses and disease outbreaks.
The organisation said the event is unfolding amid global warming, adding that it has increased the frequency and intensity of extremes, raising concerns that impacts could be more severe than previous episodes.
CESTLAP recalled that previous strong El Niños caused widespread disruptions, and that the 1997–1998 event triggered global losses estimated at tens of billions of dollars.
It also cited 2015–2016, when severe drought hit southern Africa leading to crop failures, water shortages, livestock deaths and food insecurity affecting millions.
While every El Niño behaves differently, historical evidence offers valuable guidance for preparedness, CESTLAP said, adding that strength alone does not determine impact severity, but widespread consequences remain likely.
CESTLAP advocated stronger drought and flood contingency plans as well as better water management, climate-resilient agriculture, improved food and health monitoring, and expanded early warning systems.
Prof. Adegoke also expressed appreciation to volunteers who organised the event. He gave special recognition to Dr. Neville Sweijd for coordinating the programme, describing him as “a good man with a fertile mind.”
CESTLAP which said it will continue monitoring through its network of climate scientists, promised to work with stakeholders to strengthen Africa’s preparedness and resilience against the 2026/2027 El Niño impacts.