By Abbas Nazil
At least 35,000 excess deaths have been recorded across Europe following four consecutive record-breaking heatwaves this summer, with experts warning that the actual death toll could be significantly higher when outstanding August figures are included.
Provisional data from only about half of the continent shows that Germany, France and Spain have already recorded more than 25,000 deaths above the number normally expected during the period.
The successive heatwaves, which began in May, broke historical temperature records at hundreds of weather stations across western Europe, while France experienced its hottest national average day on record.
Germany has recorded the highest number of heat-related deaths, with an estimated 14,000 people dying from heat between 6 April and 9 August, according to the Robert Koch Institute, the country’s public health agency.
The institute estimated that 9,600 people died during a single week from 22 to 28 June, making the period one of the deadliest heatwave episodes recorded in the country.
Germany’s heat-related death toll this summer is already the highest since records began, surpassing the previous record of 8,900 deaths recorded in 2018.
Spain has also experienced its deadliest year on record for heat-related mortality, with 4,947 deaths attributed to extreme heat between May and August, according to the Carlos III health institute’s mortality monitoring system.
The figure has surpassed the previous Spanish record of 4,520 heat-related deaths recorded in 2022.
France recorded 7,300 excess deaths from all causes between late May and 22 July, according to its national health agency, although the figure remains provisional and does not include August mortality.
More than 500 weather stations in France recorded temperatures exceeding 40°C, while 98 per cent of the country was placed under heat alerts at one stage during the extreme weather.
Other European countries have also reported substantial increases in mortality, including England, where modelling estimated 2,877 heat-associated deaths during the May and June heatwaves.
Belgium recorded 1,222 additional deaths during a period when mortality increased by 39 per cent, while the Netherlands reported at least 900 more deaths than normally expected between 22 June and 5 July.
Poland recorded an estimated 1,070 additional deaths during the late-June heatwave, while Switzerland reported about 220 excess heat-related deaths during the same week.
Italy has yet to release a consolidated national death toll, but modelling indicates that approximately 2,700 more people than usual died during the week of 22 to 28 June, while epidemiologists estimate that the country’s eventual heat-attributable death toll could reach between 5,000 and 8,000.
The figures are difficult to calculate because heat is rarely recorded as the direct cause of death, instead worsening existing conditions such as cardiovascular and respiratory diseases and contributing to heart attacks, strokes and kidney failure.
Health authorities in several countries therefore use statistical models to compare mortality during periods of extreme temperatures with expected death rates.
Experts have warned that current figures are likely to increase because many countries have not yet published complete data for August and final attribution of heat-related deaths can take weeks or months.
Scientists say human-induced climate change is increasing the frequency and intensity of extreme heat events, while Europe’s ageing population is adding to the number of people vulnerable to dangerous temperatures.
The World Health Organization said heat-related mortality across its European region has increased by more than 30 per cent over the past two decades and warned that deaths linked to extreme heat are likely to rise significantly as the climate crisis intensifies and populations continue to age.
More than 80 million Europeans experienced temperatures above 40°C at some point this summer, highlighting the growing threat posed by extreme heat to public health across the continent.