2022 CLIMATE PREDICTIONS: OUR MINDSETS INCLINING TOWARD POST-DISASTER RECOVERY IGNORING PRE-DISASTER PLANS

By Abdulmajid Abubakar

According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), extreme weather has the most immediate impact on daily lives, and Early Warning Systems are critically required for climate adaptation. This early warnings should be taken seriously by states, private entities, and Nigerians.

The 2022 Seasonal Climate Prediction (SCP) as released by the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NIMET) and the 2022 Annual Flood Outlook (AFO) by the Nigeria Hydrological Services Agency (NIHSA) shows that 233 Local Government Areas (LGAs) in 32 states of the Federation and the FCT fall within the highly probable Flood Risk Areas, while 212 LGAs in 35 states of the Federation including the FCT fall within the Moderately Probable Flood Risk Areas. The remaining 329 LGAs fall within the Probable Flood Risk Areas. This revelation should put everyone concerned on red alert. 

The Highly Probable Flood Risk States encompass 17 southern, 15 northern states, and the FCT.

It is a known fact that floods in these states become a norm and taking into account the 2012  flood which was termed as the worst in 40 years. The National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA), recorded the killing of 363 people and displaced over 2.1 million people. Estimated damage and losses caused by the floods were N2.6 trillion. 

This alone should make relevant stakeholders more concerned about science. Climate Change should not be a joke rather, it should be taken a lot more seriously.

The question here is are there proactive decisions and policies in place that will help avoid losses and strengthen mitigation, adaptation, and reduction of risks associated with floods in our states?

Or are we just folding our arms, ignoring the predictions, early warnings, and red alerts, and await for the devastating destruction of lives and properties?

Protecting people from floods requires the will, our attitude towards our environment, and the integration of many technical professionals to make good predictions and decisions.

As Meteorologists will predict the risk of extreme rainfall.

Hydrologists will translate this rainfall into predictions about what the flood will be like in terms of depth, flow, and speed. 

The Engineers are expected to be more serious when it comes to designing roads, bridges, and buildings to cope with the likely conditions. 

Our government tends to give little concern to planners. These planners in saner climes ensure new development is compatible with flood risks. Contracts should be awarded based on merit.

Likewise, afforestation and reforestation should be encouraged in both State and Local Government Areas. We are in August 2022 now, but our states are yet to distribute the annual seedlings for massive tree planting. Our culverts were blocked, the people see the culverts to be dumping sites and government is mute about this behavior of ours, we are not committed to community-based initiatives.

Ultimately, our laws and policies need to be revisited and strengthen, things can’t continue like this, and our developments shouldn’t be backward.

In this regard, the notion of betterment shouldn’t only wait for the occurrence of floods so that it will provide post-disaster recovery and reconstruction, rather it should give much priority on pre-disaster plans through proactive mitigation strategies which aim to enhance and harden infrastructure to a more disaster resilient standard.