By Abdullahi Lukman
Climate change could push an additional 5.1 million Nigerians into poverty by 2035 and shrink Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by up to 6.8 per cent by 2050 if urgent adaptation measures are not implemented, the World Bank Group has warned.
The warning was contained in the World Bank’s Nigeria Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR), which highlighted the growing economic and social threats posed by rising temperatures, floods, droughts, coastal erosion and other climate-related shocks.
According to the report, climate change poses a significant challenge to Nigeria’s ambition of becoming a $1 trillion economy by 2035 and achieving a low-carbon, climate-resilient economy by 2050. While recent economic reforms have improved macroeconomic stability, the World Bank said climate risks could reverse progress in poverty reduction and economic growth if resilience investments are not accelerated.
The report estimated that about 138 million Nigerians, roughly 60 per cent of the population, were living in poverty in 2024.
Under a severe climate scenario marked by higher temperatures and reduced rainfall, poverty levels are expected to worsen, with millions more falling below the poverty line.
It noted that poorer households would be hardest hit due to their dependence on agriculture and outdoor labour. Expenditure among the poorest 20 per cent of Nigerians could decline by about 3 per cent by 2035 under adverse climate conditions, compared with 1.7 per cent among wealthier households.
The World Bank also identified labour productivity as one of the sectors most vulnerable to climate change. Rising temperatures and heat stress could reduce national productivity by up to 3.8 per cent by 2050, while agricultural productivity losses could reach 6.3 per cent.
Agriculture, which contributes about 25 per cent of Nigeria’s GDP and serves as the primary source of livelihood for two-thirds of poor Nigerians, is expected to face severe disruptions. Rain-fed crop production could decline by up to 3.9 per cent, while irrigated farming may fall by as much as 11.2 per cent under certain climate scenarios.
The report further warned that climate change could intensify social tensions and insecurity by increasing competition for land and water resources, particularly in areas already affected by herder-farmer conflicts.
Health outcomes are also expected to deteriorate as rising temperatures and extreme weather events increase disease outbreaks, worsen malnutrition and place additional pressure on the healthcare system.
Infrastructure could face mounting losses, with annual damages to bridge infrastructure from inland flooding projected to rise to $172.8 million by 2050. Transport infrastructure is also expected to suffer increasing damage from more frequent flooding and extreme weather events.
Despite the risks, the World Bank said decisive climate action could significantly reduce economic losses. It projected that implementing recommended adaptation measures could limit GDP losses to just 0.5 per cent by 2030 and potentially increase GDP by 0.9 per cent above baseline levels by 2050.
To support a climate-resilient and low-emission development pathway, Nigeria would require an estimated $94.6 billion in investments between 2025 and 2030, $114.4 billion between 2030 and 2040, and a further $73 billion between 2040 and 2050.
The World Bank said funding would need to come from a mix of public resources, private sector participation, multilateral institutions and climate finance mechanisms.
It also called on Nigeria to strengthen climate policy implementation, improve infrastructure, expand access to finance and accelerate reforms across key sectors.
While acknowledging ongoing reforms in energy, agriculture, health and social protection, the report stressed that current efforts must be significantly expanded to protect the economy and population from the growing impacts of climate change.
