By Faridat Salifu
The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) has warned that a prolonged disruption in the Strait of Hormuz could escalate into a global agrifood crisis, driving up food prices and threatening supply chains for key agricultural inputs.
FAO Chief Economist Máximo Torero said ships carrying essential fertilizers and energy-related agricultural inputs must resume movement through the Strait as soon as possible to avoid a sharp rise in food inflation later in the year.
He said delays in restoring stable trade flows could reduce crop yields and trigger sustained increases in global food commodity prices, with effects that may extend into 2027.
Torero warned that many developing countries are particularly exposed due to ongoing planting cycles and limited access to affordable fertilizer and energy inputs.
He noted that rising input costs could force farmers to adjust planting decisions, including shifting away from certain crops or reducing fertilizer use, which would lower productivity.
FAO Director of Agrifood Economics Division David Laborde said the global economy is currently facing an input crisis that could worsen if urgent action is not taken.
He warned that failure to respond could turn the situation into a wider catastrophe affecting food availability and inflation worldwide.
The FAO said fertilizer and energy markets are highly sensitive, meaning even small disruptions in supply routes such as the Strait of Hormuz could trigger sharp price increases.
It estimated that between 20 and 45 percent of global agrifood input trade depends on maritime passage through the strategic waterway.
The organization urged countries to avoid export restrictions on fertilizers and energy products, warning that such measures could worsen global supply shortages.
FAO also called for coordinated international action, including support from multilateral institutions to help vulnerable countries secure access to fertilizers ahead of planting seasons.
It proposed the use of financing mechanisms such as IMF balance-of-payment facilities and the Food Shock Window to support countries facing immediate input shortages.
Torero said FAO has already developed a crop calendar-based system to identify countries most at risk based on planting timelines and fertilizer needs.
He warned that failure to act quickly could lead to lower yields, higher food inflation, and broader economic instability similar to post-pandemic disruptions.
