By Yemi Olakitan
Current climate policy states that eight poorest nations, including Nigeria, face a bleak economic future with median GDP losses of -20% by 2050 and -64% by 2100.
Even if global warming is kept to 1.5 degrees Celsius, the African continent will suffer catastrophic economic effects from climate change, according to a research released a few months ago by Christian Aid.
An economist at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis in Vienna named Marina Andrijevic was the report’s lead author. It was titled “The Cost to Africa: Drastic Economic Damage from Climate Change.”
According to the analysis, eight countries would experience GDP losses of at least 25% by 2050 and 75% by 2100 under the current course of action. Sudan, Mauritania, Mali, Niger, Burkina Faso, Chad, Djibouti, and Nigeria are the eight countries in question. By 2050 and 2100, it is projected that these countries’ economy will still be greater than they are today. This research demonstrates the severity of the damage that climate change has caused to their GDP in compared to a case in which it didn’t happen. Even if nations limit the rise in global temperature to 1.5C as required by the Paris Agreement, African countries will have an average GDP decline of 14% by 2050 and 34% by 2100. This highlights the need for a robust loss and damage mechanism, even if countries are successful in keeping global warming below 1.5C.
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The countries with the biggest predicted GDP losses are Sudan and Nigeria, which last year saw one of the worst rainy seasons in recent memory.
According to the Christian Aid assessment, if current climate policies are followed, Sudan’s GDP will fall by 32.4% by 2050 and 84.4% by 2100 compared to what it would be if there were no climate change. Even in a 1.5C scenario, Sudan can expect a GDP hit of -22.4% by 2050 and -51.6% by 2100.
Despite the report’s dismal economic predictions, Africa continues to be the continent that is least responsible for contributing to the climate problem, according to a news release from Christian Aid late last year. The top 20 countries with the worst impacts emit, on average, 0.43 tonnes of CO2 per person, according to the analysis. Comparatively, Australia produces 15.4 tonnes per person, the United States and Canada 14.2 tonnes, and Saudi Arabia 18. “This analysis demonstrates the significant burden that climate change would place on Africa’s economic progress. African nations face many difficulties, and the climate catastrophe poses a serious danger to their ability to build their economies sustainably. These figures are only a function of rising annual temperatures, not the effects of extreme weather occurrences, according to Marina Andrijevic, an economist from the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis in Vienna who participated to the study. This indicates that they may be conservative projections given the large losses generated by catastrophic weather events’ economic effects, which may have an impact on both economic growth and the point at which African nations resume growth.
When it comes to adopting climate-smart agriculture and resilience, Nigeria’s important authorities and ministries, such as those for the environment, water resources, and agricultural and rural development, lack coordination. The impact of climate change on Nigeria’s agricultural production may be underestimated, according to experts, who noted that farm yields are already declining and rural farmers are dealing with climate-related issues.
Nigeria currently has the highest rate of deforestation in the world, which supports the charcoal industry. Stakeholders worry that Nigeria may run out of forest resources over the next few decades.
The region, which produces more than 60% of the nation’s staple foods like rice, maize, wheat, sorghum, millet, and other grains, will be severely impacted by the slow-moving efforts to stop the fast desertification of the country’s northern margins.
