Food system reform can curb global warming, study finds
By Abdullahi Lukman
A new study has discovered a decisive transformation of the global food system could significantly slow climate change, potentially limiting global temperature rise to 1.85°C above pre-industrial levels by 2050, even without major changes in the energy sector.
The study, led by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) and published in Nature Food, identifies 23 key measures across diets, agriculture and trade that together could deliver major climate, health and environmental benefits.
Using an analytical framework centred on PIK’s MAgPIE agri-food system model, researchers assessed the impacts of different future pathways on climate change, public health, biodiversity, social equity and economic growth.
The scenarios ranged from a continuation of current trends to a rapid transformation of the food system, and a broader sustainability pathway covering multiple economic sectors.
According to lead author Benjamin Bodirsky, transforming the food system could reduce greenhouse gas emissions while improving life expectancy, cutting nitrogen pollution and slightly lowering global poverty.
He added that combining food system reforms with changes in other sectors could keep global warming well below 2°C.
The research highlights dietary shifts as a major driver of change, including reduced consumption of sugar, meat and dairy products, and increased intake of plant-based foods such as legumes, fruits, vegetables, nuts and whole grains.
Other measures include reducing food waste, addressing hunger and overeating, promoting sustainable farming practices, lowering trade barriers and improving wages in agricultural sectors of low-income countries.
When food system reforms are combined with broader sustainability measures—such as faster fossil fuel phase-out, sustainable economic development, reduced population growth and alternative materials in construction—the model projects a 38 per cent chance of limiting warming to 1.5°C and a 91 per cent chance of staying below 2°C by mid-century.
In this expanded scenario, the study also projects sharp declines in diet-related diseases, higher global economic output and a dramatic reduction in extreme poverty.
Biodiversity loss is expected to halt as pressure on ecosystems eases through habitat protection, diversified farming systems and reduced land-use change.
The researchers said the study is intended to inform policy ambition rather than prescribe specific policy tools.
By quantifying the combined benefits of food system reform, they argue, the findings offer a comprehensive vision for aligning climate action, human health, social justice and environmental protection.
