By Abdullahi Lukman
On December 5, 2025, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian’s meeting in Yasuj was abruptly cut off by state TV after an environmental activist accused the government of advancing controversial dam projects.
Pezeshkian’s admission on air that “we are trapped everywhere in Iran over water” underlined a broader truth: Iran is grappling with multiple interconnected crises—water shortages, an unraveling economy, and a deteriorating environment—that the regime can no longer conceal.
The country’s water crisis has reached a breaking point. Hashem Ureii, head of the Federation of Energy Scientific Associations, warned that Iran is facing “water bankruptcy,” with nearly 90% of national water consumption allocated to agriculture.
In Tehran, the capital’s main dams are only 3 percent full, and autumn rainfall has been 97 percent below average. Local officials have raised alarms about serious challenges to drinking-water security.
The situation has escalated in the Zagros region, where controversial dam projects like Mandegan and Khersan-3 continue despite public opposition.
Activists, including Rahman Vafanejad, accuse the government of ignoring scientific warnings about environmental damage, but the regime’s efforts to silence dissent are increasingly evident, as shown by the disruption of Pezeshkian’s meeting.
In parallel with the water crisis, Iran’s economy is crumbling. By December, the free-market dollar had surpassed 122,000 tomans, with inflation projected to exceed 60 percent by the end of the year.
Structural issues in the banking system, a massive budget deficit, and sanctions on oil exports have crippled the country’s financial stability.
The economic squeeze is being felt by millions of Iranians. Labor-market experts report that the urban poverty line now exceeds 55 million tomans per month, with over half the population living below this threshold. Food prices have skyrocketed, with the cost of rice, meat, and eggs all hitting record highs.
As a result, approximately 40 million people live under relative poverty, and 7 million face food insecurity.
Iran’s environmental challenges extend beyond water and economics, with air quality in major cities deteriorating to hazardous levels.
Tehran has only had six “clean air” days in 2025, and many other cities, including Isfahan and Mashhad, have experienced dangerous levels of pollution.
The public health consequences are dire. Over 200,000 emergency room visits were reported in just ten days due to respiratory issues caused by pollution.
Power plants and heavy trucks continue to use high-sulfur fuel, contributing to the toxic air, as the government prioritizes energy over public health to avoid blackouts.
Hospitals are struggling to manage the surge in respiratory illnesses, exacerbating the strain on the already overburdened healthcare system.
On December 6, the government introduced a controversial three-tier gasoline pricing system to curb smuggling, but the move has sparked concerns of further price hikes.
This decision comes with significant political risk, as memories of the violent November 2019 fuel protests are still fresh.
The economy is weaker, inflation higher, and public trust in the regime is rapidly eroding.
Even modest policy shifts now carry the potential to trigger unrest.
Internally, the regime is showing signs of strain. Pezeshkian himself described his tenure as a string of “bad events,” acknowledging widespread public anger over water shortages, energy imbalances, and the ongoing fiscal crisis.
Tensions within the elite are rising, with reports of infighting in parliament and fears of cabinet reshuffles.
As the government struggles to address the mounting crises, its margin for error grows ever smaller.
The regime is increasingly unable to balance the competing demands of rationing basic resources while maintaining political control. As one official put it, “We are trapped”—a sentiment that echoes the growing disillusionment of the Iranian public.
