By Abdullahi Lukman
Global renewable power capacity is expected to more than double by 2030, increasing by 4,600 gigawatts (GW), according to the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) latest Renewables 2025 report.
This growth—driven largely by solar photovoltaic (PV) technology—could add the equivalent of the total power capacity of China, the European Union, and Japan combined.
Solar PV alone is projected to account for around 80% of this expansion due to its low costs and faster permitting processes.
Other contributors include wind, hydropower, bioenergy, and geothermal energy. Geothermal is forecast to reach record-high installations in markets such as the United States, Japan, and Indonesia, while interest in pumped-storage hydropower is also growing due to increased grid integration challenges.
Emerging economies in Asia, the Middle East, and Africa are seeing accelerated growth thanks to stronger policy support and enhanced cost competitiveness.
India is set to become the second-largest market for renewable growth after China, driven by ambitious government targets and auction programs.
At the corporate level, most major renewable developers have maintained or raised their 2030 targets, signaling strong confidence in the sector.
However, offshore wind is facing setbacks, with its growth forecast revised downward by 25% due to policy changes, supply chain disruptions, and rising costs.
Despite strong overall momentum, the IEA has slightly lowered its global forecast compared to last year, citing reduced growth expectations in the United States—due to early phase-out of federal tax incentives—and regulatory shifts in China affecting project economics.
These reductions are partially offset by upward revisions in India, Europe, and other developing regions where policy reforms and rooftop solar deployment are accelerating.
Solar PV remains the lowest-cost new generation source in most countries, while wind power is expected to rebound as current bottlenecks are addressed.
Hydropower and other renewables will continue to support grid flexibility.
Nonetheless, concerns remain over supply chain concentration, particularly in China, which continues to dominate solar PV and rare earth element production.
Grid constraints, curtailments, and negative pricing events are also increasing, pointing to the need for urgent investment in storage, transmission, and flexible generation systems.
In transport and heating, renewables are projected to grow modestly.
The share of renewables in transport energy use will rise from 4% today to 6% by 2030, led by electric vehicles and biofuels, while their share in heating will grow from 14% to 18%, supported by electrification and policy support in key regions.
