By Abdullahi Lukman
Global food security is increasingly at risk as the ongoing conflict in the Middle East continues to disrupt supply chains, pushing up energy and fertiliser prices and straining vulnerable economies, according to a joint warning from the International Energy Agency, the International Monetary Fund, and the World Bank Group.
The institutions said the impact of the war remains “substantial, global, and highly asymmetric,” with low-income, energy-importing countries facing the greatest pressure. Rising costs of oil, gas, and fertilisers are worsening food insecurity, threatening jobs, and weakening export revenues in some producing nations.
They also noted that shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has yet to fully recover, adding that even a return to normal flows would not immediately stabilise global commodity supplies.
Damage to infrastructure is expected to keep fuel and fertiliser prices elevated, increasing the likelihood of shortages across food, energy, and industrial sectors.
Beyond supply disruptions, the conflict has displaced populations, reduced employment opportunities, and weakened travel and tourism, effects that could persist over time.
The warning follows a coordination meeting held in early April, where the organisations reviewed global and country-level impacts and discussed policy responses.
They pledged continued collaboration, including financial assistance and tailored policy support where needed, while monitoring risks to energy markets and the global economy.
Recent data highlight growing strain on food systems.
The UN Food and Agriculture Organization reported that global food prices rose for a second consecutive month in March, driven largely by higher energy costs linked to the conflict. Its Food Price Index increased by 2.4 percent from February and is now trending upward again.
Vegetable oil and sugar prices recorded the sharpest increases, while cereals saw moderate gains and rice prices declined slightly. Meat and dairy prices also rose due to supply constraints in key producing regions.
FAO Chief Economist Máximo Torero warned that prolonged instability could further disrupt supplies of essential food items, particularly if key energy routes remain affected.
He stressed that heavily indebted countries are most at risk, as rising import costs could force cuts in food purchases or reliance on lower-quality supplies.
To reduce the impact, the FAO called for coordinated policy measures, including securing alternative trade routes, protecting humanitarian supply chains, and strengthening social safety nets.
It also urged long-term investments in storage, transport infrastructure, and more efficient fertiliser use to improve resilience against future shocks.
