By Faridat Salifu
Cocoa prices have tumbled to multi-year lows as abundant global supplies combine with weakening demand to pressure the market.
London cocoa futures recently hit a 2.25-year low, while New York contracts fell to a two-year nearest-futures low following a report by the International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) showing global cocoa stocks for 2024/25 rose 4.2 percent year-on-year to 1.1 million metric tonnes.
Demand concerns are mounting as consumers resist higher chocolate prices, with Barry Callebaut AG reporting a 22 percent drop in cocoa division sales volume for the quarter ending November 30, citing weak market demand.
Data from major grinding associations underscores the slowdown, with European cocoa grindings falling 8.3 percent year-on-year in Q4 2025 and Asian grindings declining 4.8 percent year-on-year over the same period, while North American grindings edged up only 0.3 percent .
Favourable growing conditions in West Africa are expected to further boost the harvest in February and March, with larger and healthier pods reported in Ivory Coast and Ghana, the world’s top cocoa producers.
Mondelez said cocoa pod counts in the region are 7 percent above the five-year average and materially higher than last year, while Ivory Coast farmers have already begun harvesting the main crop.
Despite the oversupply, some West African producers are holding back shipments due to low prices, with Ivory Coast cocoa exports down 3.2 percent year-on-year to 1.20 million metric tonnes for the current marketing season.
In contrast, smaller Nigerian cocoa exports are providing modest support for prices, with November exports falling 7 percent year-on-year to 35,203 metric tonnes and 2025/26 production projected to decline 11 percent to 305,000 metric tonnes.
Global inventory data shows mixed signals: ICE-monitored cocoa stocks in U.S. ports climbed to a 2.5-month high, weighing on prices, even as global supply projections tighten slightly, with ICCO and Rabobank lowering their 2024/25 and 2025/26 surplus estimates.
Analysts say cocoa markets remain caught between strong West African production and fragile demand, highlighting the challenges facing producers and chocolate makers in balancing supply with shifting consumer consumption patterns.
