By Abbas Nazil
Nigeria’s agricultural sector is facing increasing pressure as climate shocks, environmental stress and insecurity drive a sharp rise in crop losses, with partial harvest losses more than tripling over the past five years, according to a new analysis by the World Bank.
The report revealed that partial crop losses in Nigeria increased from about six per cent of cultivated plots in the 2018/2019 farming season to more than 20 per cent in 2023/2024, while cases of complete crop failure remained relatively stable.
The analysis, conducted using data from Nigeria’s General Household Survey–Panel under the World Bank’s Living Standards Measurement Study programme, assessed losses among both seasonal crops such as maize, yam and cowpea and permanent crops including cocoa, palm oil and fruit trees.
Nigeria, Africa’s largest agricultural economy, contributes about one-quarter of the country’s gross domestic product and provides employment for more than one-third of the workforce.
The World Bank said that despite strong agricultural production figures, the increasing level of partial crop losses represents a hidden challenge threatening food security, rural livelihoods and long-term agricultural development.
Climate-related events remain the leading cause of agricultural losses across the country, with flooding, excessive rainfall and other environmental shocks accounting for more than one-third of total crop losses in both farming seasons examined.
The report noted that weather-related factors contributed nearly two-thirds of partial crop losses recorded during the 2023/2024 season, particularly affecting field crops that are highly exposed to changing rainfall patterns.
However, insecurity has emerged as a growing factor contributing to agricultural decline, with conflict-related losses nearly doubling between the two periods studied and accounting for about one-fifth of national crop losses by 2023/2024.
The World Bank explained that unlike climate events that mainly reduce crop yields, conflicts disrupt the entire agricultural system by limiting farmers’ access to farmland, labour, agricultural inputs and markets.
In some affected communities, especially in the northeast, northwest and parts of northcentral Nigeria, insecurity has forced farmers to abandon their fields completely.
The report highlighted significant regional differences in crop losses, noting that the northeast experienced a dramatic increase in partial losses, rising to more than 40 per cent of plots in 2023/2024 due largely to weather-related challenges.
The southwest and south-south regions also recorded increased losses due to a combination of climate pressures, insecurity, land challenges and disruptions to farming activities.
Field crops were identified as increasingly vulnerable, with losses doubling between the two seasons, narrowing the previous gap between seasonal crops and permanent crops.
The World Bank also raised concern over the growing number of planted areas left completely unharvested, particularly in regions affected by insecurity and climate impacts.
In the northeast, unharvested farmland increased from about seven per cent to nearly 27 per cent during the period studied, reflecting the combined impact of environmental shocks and conflict.
The report called for stronger climate resilience measures, including improved drainage systems, flood control infrastructure, climate-smart farming practices and wider access to resilient crop varieties.
It also urged better coordination between agricultural programmes and security interventions, especially in conflict-affected areas, to ensure farmers can access land, extension services and livelihood support.
The World Bank stressed the need to strengthen on-farm risk management through improved climate information systems, pest control measures and agricultural advisory services to help farmers withstand increasing shocks.
According to the report, Nigeria’s agricultural challenge is no longer only about increasing production but also ensuring that crops produced successfully survive climate risks, insecurity and other disruptions before reaching consumers.
It warned that without urgent action, rising crop losses could reverse agricultural progress, worsen food insecurity and deepen economic vulnerability among millions of rural households across the country.
