By Abbas Nazil
Human-induced climate change dramatically increased the likelihood and intensity of the devastating wildfires that swept across Spain and France, according to two new scientific studies, reinforcing warnings that rising global temperatures are making extreme fire conditions more frequent and more destructive.
A rapid analysis by the World Weather Attribution (WWA) found that human-caused climate change made the hot and dry conditions behind Spain’s record-breaking wildfires about 20 times more likely to occur.
The same study concluded that climate change doubled the probability of the extreme fire weather that fuelled major wildfires in France.
Researchers also found that warming over the last 26 years has tripled the likelihood of severe fire risk conditions in Spain while increasing the chances of similar conditions in France by about 40 percent.
The findings were released as firefighters continued battling wildfires across parts of Southern Europe, where prolonged heatwaves, drought and dry vegetation have created ideal conditions for rapidly spreading fires.
A separate study published in the journal *Scientific Reports* reached similar conclusions, showing that Southern Europe now experiences more than twice as many days with extreme fire-prone weather compared with previous decades.
The research estimated that the region previously experienced about 10 extreme fire weather days each year, but that number has now risen to approximately 25 days annually.
Scientists also reported that today’s extreme fire weather conditions are about 50 percent more intense than those recorded between 1981 and 2010.
Both studies assessed the weather conditions that promote wildfire outbreaks, including high temperatures, prolonged drought, low humidity and strong winds.
World Weather Attribution coordinator and Imperial College London climate scientist Prof. Friederike Otto described the changes observed in Spain as among the most significant she has encountered during climate attribution research.
She explained that Spain’s hottest summer on record followed an unusually wet January, which encouraged abundant vegetation growth before severe drought dried the landscape, leaving large amounts of highly combustible fuel for wildfires.
Otto also identified land abandonment as another factor worsening Spain’s wildfire risk because unmanaged vegetation dries out and burns more easily during prolonged periods of extreme heat.
In France, she said extensive pine plantations, particularly around the Bordeaux region, created conditions that allowed fires to spread rapidly once ignited.
Although the World Weather Attribution analysis was completed before undergoing formal peer review because of the urgency of the ongoing disaster, the researchers said it relied on internationally accepted scientific methods that have been validated in numerous previous studies.
The team estimated climate change’s contribution by comparing today’s fire weather conditions with historical climate records and with a simulated world that is about 1.4 degrees Celsius cooler, representing temperatures before large-scale industrial greenhouse gas emissions.
Independent fire scientists welcomed the findings, saying they support decades of research linking rising temperatures to increasingly severe wildfire conditions.
Jacob Bendix, a fire scientist at Syracuse University who was not involved in either study, said extreme heat and prolonged drought have long been recognised as conditions that allow fires to ignite more easily and spread more rapidly.
He added that scientists have also known for decades that climate change driven by human activities is making those dangerous weather conditions increasingly common.
Raúl Cordero, lead author of the Scientific Reports study and a climate scientist at the University of Groningen, said improvements in firefighting strategies and land management had significantly reduced both wildfire numbers and burned areas across Southern Europe from the 1980s until around 2018.
However, he noted that the accelerating impacts of climate change have now overwhelmed many of those gains, making extreme weather conditions so severe that even well-equipped emergency services struggle to contain rapidly spreading fires.
According to Cordero, no amount of funding or firefighting resources can fully stop wildfire propagation when weather conditions become exceptionally extreme.
University of California, Merced fire scientist John Abatzaglou, who also reviewed the findings independently, said the studies provide further evidence that climate change is no longer a future concern but a present-day reality affecting communities across Europe.
Researchers stressed that reducing greenhouse gas emissions remains the most effective long-term solution to limiting increasingly dangerous fire weather.
Otto warned that continued burning of coal, oil and natural gas will drive global temperatures even higher, leading to more frequent, more intense and more destructive wildfire conditions in the years ahead while pushing adaptation efforts closer to their practical limits.
