By Abbas Nazil
A new scientific study has warned that climate change could significantly expand the distribution of the corn pest Blissus leucopterus across Mexico, threatening food security, agricultural livelihoods and biodiversity while potentially causing economic losses exceeding US$1.2 billion by 2070.
The research, conducted by scientists from the National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM) and the National Institute for Forestry, Agriculture and Livestock Research (INIFAP), found that rising temperatures and increasing climate variability are creating conditions that favour the spread and reproduction of the pest in major corn-producing regions.
Published under the title “A Threat to Food Security in Mexico: Climate-Driven Expansion of Corn Devastating Pest and Its Economic Impact,” the study combined climate projections, ecological modelling and economic analysis to assess how future climate conditions could influence the insect’s distribution and impact.
Researchers said the work is among the first in Mexico to integrate climate, ecological and economic models in evaluating the long-term consequences of an agricultural pest under changing environmental conditions.
According to the findings, areas suitable for Blissus leucopterus could expand from approximately 12 per cent of Mexico’s territory today to between 15 and 16 per cent by the middle of the century.
The study identified Oaxaca, Veracruz, Chiapas and Tabasco as particularly vulnerable regions where favourable climatic conditions could allow the pest to reproduce rapidly, completing its life cycle in as little as 15 days.
Scientists also expressed concern that the insect could establish populations in Sinaloa, one of Mexico’s most important corn-producing states and a major contributor to national food supplies.
The researchers explained that climate change is already reshaping agricultural systems globally by altering rainfall patterns, increasing droughts and floods, and influencing the behaviour, survival and distribution of pests and crop diseases.
They pointed to international examples, including the growing threat of spotted-wing drosophila in Chile and the global spread of the fall armyworm, as evidence that warmer temperatures can accelerate pest expansion and intensify agricultural losses.
The economic implications for Mexico could be severe.
The study estimates that losses associated with Blissus leucopterus could reach approximately US$600 million by 2030 and more than US$1.2 billion by 2070 under high-risk climate scenarios.
Researchers noted that these losses would represent about 0.025 per cent of Mexico’s gross domestic product and could be comparable to the economic damage caused by major natural disasters.
Smallholder farmers are expected to bear the greatest burden because many rural households depend on corn both as a source of income and as a staple food crop.
Beyond economic impacts, the study warned that persistent pest outbreaks could threaten Mexico’s rich agricultural heritage.
The country is recognised as the centre of origin and diversification of maize and is home to 59 native corn varieties developed and preserved by Indigenous peoples and farming communities over generations.
Scientists cautioned that repeated crop failures may encourage some farmers to abandon agriculture, increasing rural migration and weakening traditional farming systems that support biodiversity and local food production.
The researchers also highlighted potential public health concerns associated with increased pesticide use, warning that prolonged exposure to agricultural chemicals can lead to respiratory illnesses, poisoning and other health complications, especially where safety measures are inadequate.
To address these emerging risks, the study called for stronger public policies, improved access to pest-related data and the development of integrated monitoring and early warning systems that combine climate, biological and economic information.
Additional recommendations include expanding phytosanitary surveillance programmes, promoting sustainable pest management practices and reducing dependence on intensive agrochemical applications.
The researchers concluded that protecting Mexico’s food security, rural livelihoods and agricultural biodiversity will require coordinated action involving scientific research, government policy and traditional agricultural knowledge as climate change continues to reshape farming conditions across the country.
