By Abbas Nazil
China’s carbon emissions have remained flat or declined over the past 18 months, according to a recent analysis by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA).
The study, led by analyst Lauri Myllyvirta and published by Carbon Brief, attributes the stabilization to a rapid expansion of renewable energy and a slowdown in certain industrial activities.
Despite rising electricity demand, which increased from 3.7 percent in the first half of 2025 to 6.1 percent in the third quarter, emissions from China’s power sector have not grown significantly.
Renewable energy capacity, particularly solar and wind, has seen substantial growth, with electricity generation from solar increasing by 46 percent and wind by 11 percent since the third quarter of 2024.
In the first nine months of 2025, China completed 240 gigawatts of solar and 61 gigawatts of wind capacity, positioning the country to break records in renewable energy generation.
Emissions reductions were also observed in the cement, steel, and transport sectors, with electric vehicle adoption contributing to a 5 percent decline in transport-related emissions compared to the previous year.
Seasonal patterns indicate higher electricity demand during summer months, driven by increased air conditioning use amid hotter temperatures, reflecting the impacts of climate change.
However, emissions from other industrial sectors, particularly the chemical industry, have increased due to growing domestic demand, plastic production, and export-oriented manufacturing.
Packaging for online retail and food delivery, along with demand for high-performance industrial materials, has contributed to rising chemical sector emissions, partially offsetting power-sector gains.
The full-year trajectory for China’s emissions in 2025 remains uncertain, as industrial output and policy measures will influence whether the overall emissions continue to decline or see a minor increase.
Analysts note that a year-on-year decline of approximately 3% has been recorded so far, suggesting the potential for a modest reduction in annual emissions if trends persist through the final quarter.
