By Augustine Aminu
There is no end in sight to Nigeria’s frequent system collapse, which has resulted in power outages in the country, industry experts have said.
Despite government interventions and assurances, Nigeria’s power grid has collapsed more than seven times in the first seven months of 2022, causing blackouts and leaving businesses and homes counting their losses.
Yet, experts say Nigerians may have to further endure such blackout and subsequent economic loses as a result of frequent system collapse.
According to experts, this is due to the poor integrity of the electricity transmission grid.
They also recommended that frequent collapse of the national grid will persist, unless a proper unbundling of the Transmission Company of Nigeria, (TCN) is enforced.
A former General Manager, Corporate Communications, Niger Delta Power Holding Company (NDPHC), Yakubu Lawal, said Nigeria has a “fragile network” of transmission. Lawal said transmission companies cannot wheel 4,000MW consistently for three hours.
He suggested that the solution to this, is for government and stakeholders to inject more transmission facilities and distribution transformers for the nation to enjoy reliable power supply. “We have a fragile network to the extent that any little obstruction to the system, will trigger off the network and the system collapses. The capacity of transmission companies to wheel power is not so much. They are talking about 4,000 Mega Watts (MW) or 5,000MW, but in actual sense, they cannot wheel 4,000MW consistently for three hours”. “We now find a situation whereby the generating companies generate power, but for the national grid to evacuate the power becomes a problem. That is why when you visit any of the control rooms in any of the generating companies, the control centre keep asking them to shut down one unit or the other, just to make sure they are able to balance the load so that it will not affect the network”.
“Ordinarily, the scenario is that if you have, for instance, 7,000MW generation capacity, you should be able to boast of something above 8,000MW transmission capacity.
And when you come to distribution, you should be able to have a capacity higher than the generation and transmission. “If you have that kind of scenario, the transmission will be able to handle it conveniently and the distribution will also be able to absorb them conveniently for the general public to enjoy,” he explained.
Lawal said it may be painful to know that Nigeria has not come to the end of power system collapse. “It is not something you can overcome overnight. You will have to inject more facilities, you will have to inject power transformers, you have to improve the connectivity of your transmission lines and ensure you have a stable and consistent capacity level. But as it is today, I can tell you that we have not seen the end of the system collapse. “Power is central to development. So, when the reliability is questionable, then it has implications. Using alternative power for critical operations means additional costs to the business. It means you have to run on petrol or diesel, and diesel is now very costly. This will invariably increase the cost of operation or production and this means that the cost will be transferred to the poor consumers,” he said.
In the same vein, other analysts say the unbundling of the TCN, will enable an independent role for the market operator (MO) and systems operator (SO) to enhance proper monitoring of the grid, while ensuring sanctions on defaulters in the power value chain.
They suggested that the operator oversees the administration of Nigeria’s electricity market (NEM), while the system operator can best be described as the ‘soul of the grid’, performing several functions.
The system operator undertakes control of the physical operation of the electricity system.
It is also saddled with managing the transmission grid lines, ensuring their reliability, and maintaining the grid’s technical stability through its operations of planning, dispatch, and control of the grid.
Currently, the TCN performs the dual role as one and not independently. As a result, analysts said, there hasn’t been enforcement of proper sanctions on defaulting power sector players.
“Let’s think of the market as one that can serve itself and not market of subsidies. Decentralisation of the grid is not isolation of the grid, it is opening up the grid for more investor-friendly environment,” the Lagos State Commissioner for Natural Resources, Olalere Odusote said.
Odusote expressed concern that grid collapse was recurring because no power sector player had been sanctioned.
The weak infrastructure of the distribution companies was identified as often leading to load power rejection, and putting pressure on the spinning reserve, which forces eventual collapse of the grid.
It is also believed that deficit of infrastructure across the value chain of the power sector remains another challenge which affected stable power supply in the country in the year under review.
From generation to transmission and distribution value chain, the sector is in dire need of infrastructure upgrade to meet the energy needs of the populace.
Joy Ogaji, Executive Secretary, Association of Power Generation Companies (APGC), said only 25 out of 150 GenCos licensed by NERC were operating optimally in Nigeria.
She said that the less than 6,000MW generated by the GenCos was not being optimally utilised due to load rejection by electricity Distribution Companies for various reasons.
Ms Ogaji said gas supply constraints was also one of the major challenges facing GenCos and responsible for the drop in power generation.
She said that this could be remedied by the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation agreeing to supply 60 per cent of the gas needed by the thermal plants.
Roger Brown, Chief Executive Officer, Seplat Energy Plc, said the lack of access to electricity by Nigerians was a huge opportunity for investors
He said Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product was currently N468 billion and was expected to rise to N973 billion by 2040 which would increase energy demand in the country.
Experts believe that much progress could be achieved in the power sector in 2022, especially if the government is able to follow through with its deal with German electricity giant, Siemens Group.
The deal signed in February 2020 aims to not only enhance the distribution network but also increase generation capacity to the tune of 40,000MW.
Nigerians are expecting better times in terms of electricity supply and can’t wait to reap the benefits of such plans.