By Nneka Nwogwugwu
As the climate crisis worsens, some South Africans are relocating to places with more stable climate conditions, according to a study led by Princeton University researchers.
Using a modified network modeling approach, the team looked specifically at water availability, temperature extremes, and migrants’ socioeconomic statuses during two migration periods in South Africa.
They found that, in many cases, residents were likely to leave areas struggling with climate instability, and regions with more reliable climates were more likely to attract migrants.
Socioeconomic factors also seemed to play a role. Some migrants relocating to urban areas were particularly motivated by the country’s fluctuating unemployment rate.
The findings, published in Population and Environment, showcase the benefits of using network modeling—which often isn’t used in this context—to study migration.
Because of the model, the research team was able to investigate a geographical network of districts, rather than just individual migration.
“This type of model presents a promising method for conceptualizing and analyzing migration flows,” said Michael Oppenheimer, the Albert G. Milbank Professor of Geosciences and International Affairs at the High Meadows Environmental Institute.
The study was led by Tingyin Xiao, associate research scholar, under Oppenheimer’s direction.
“South Africa is predicted to experience severe increases in temperature averages, shifts in precipitation patterns, and greater exacerbation of extreme water scarcity. It also has a uniquely high rate of internal migration, which is why we chose it as the focus of our study,” said Xiao, who is based at the Princeton School of Public and International Affairs’ Center for Policy Research on Energy and the Environment.
The team gathered migration and socioeconomic information from community surveys and censuses provided by Statistics South Africa. They examined the number of adults between ages 15 and 64 who moved from one district to another within five years.
The time periods studied were between 1997 to 2001 and 2007 to 2011. These time frames were chosen based on the data available and also because these periods came after the apartheid, which could have played a role in migration at the time.
The authors believe this study successfully fills gaps in previous ones. It improves the understanding of the climate’s impact on migration and indicates a need for preparation of more humane and effective migration policies in countries experiencing extreme climate conditions, or those that may receive migrants. They advocate for further environmental migration research with the use of network models.