By Faridat Salifu
Agriculture and rising public and private investments are expected to drive Morocco’s economic expansion, with growth projected at 4.9 percent in both 2025 and 2026, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has said.
The IMF reaffirmed the outlook following discussions under its 2026 Article IV Consultation, led by staff team head Laura Jaramillo.
Jaramillo said economic growth in 2025, estimated at 4.9 percent, has been supported by strong performance in agriculture, construction, and services, adding that the momentum is expected to continue into 2026.
The fund said growth in 2026 will be driven by increased public and private investment and solid agricultural output, supported by exceptional rainfall.
Headline inflation averaged 0.8 percent in 2025, reflecting low food inflation, and is projected to rise gradually toward 2 percent by mid-2027 as economic activity strengthens.
The IMF said Morocco’s current account deficit is expected to widen moderately due to the high import content of expanded public investment, despite higher tourism receipts, with financing partly supported by rising foreign direct investment inflows.
It noted that international reserve levels remain adequate, while risks to the outlook are broadly balanced, including external risks linked to a potential slowdown in the Euro Area and global commodity price volatility.
According to the fund, Moroccan tax revenues reached 24.6 percent of GDP in 2025, reflecting recent tax reforms and improved revenue administration.
The central government deficit narrowed to 3.5 percent of GDP, below the 3.8 percent projected in the 2025 budget, with part of the revenue overperformance used to finance additional investment and transfers to state-owned enterprises.
The IMF advised that part of future revenue overperformance should be saved to strengthen fiscal buffers and create space for higher investment in human capital, particularly in education and health.
It said access to education, health services, and social protection for vulnerable groups is improving, but called for faster implementation of reforms in these sectors.
The fund welcomed progress in strengthening the medium-term budget framework and public investment management, including steps toward adopting a new fiscal rule, while urging better identification and monitoring of fiscal risks, especially those linked to state-owned enterprises.
On monetary policy, the IMF said Morocco’s broadly neutral stance remains appropriate, with policy decisions guided by incoming data.
It encouraged the central bank, Bank Al-Maghrib, to continue its transition toward greater exchange rate flexibility and an inflation-targeting framework, with clear communication on policy sequencing.
The fund also welcomed reforms to address non-performing loans and strengthen financial system resilience.
The IMF said job creation remains a major challenge, calling for reforms that strengthen private sector dynamism, improve labour market responsiveness, and accelerate state-owned enterprise reforms to improve governance and competition.
It welcomed targeted financial and technical support for micro, small and medium-sized enterprises through initiatives such as the Investment Charter, regional investment centres, the Mohammed VI Investment Fund, and the new MSME charter.
The fund also praised the implementation of Morocco’s Job Plan 2030, describing it as a comprehensive framework to reduce unemployment through modernised labour market policies and expanded support for young people without formal qualifications.
